Irish tourism could benefit from global warming, new report finds

In Munster and south Leinster, the projected growth in visitors could reach 14%. Picture: Don MacMonagle

A steady rise in global warming could be bad for the planet but have positive benefits for the Irish tourism industry, according to a new EU report.

The research on the impact of climate change on regional tourism across the EU forecasts tourist numbers in Ireland could increase by more than 9% on current levels if there was an average increase in temperatures of 4C.

In Munster and south Leinster, the projected growth in visitors could reach 14%.

The report by the EU’s Joint Research Centre found visitor numbers to the Republic would increase by a more modest 1.4% if average temperatures increased by 1.5C — the target limit set by the legally binding Paris Agreement to combat global warming through reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

It analysed data on bed nights between 2000 and 2019 from 269 European regions and combined it with a tourism climate index, which measures the climate conditions best enjoyed by tourists as well as prices and income.

The analysis found a statistically significant relationship between bed nights and the index, which accounts for the attitude of tourists to temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind and cloud cover.

Despite the adverse impact of climate change environmentally, it found the impact on tourism demand in Europe was positive under every warming scenario, with the industry across the EU projected to grow overall between 0.35% and 1.58% depending on the warming level.

The study examined increases in average temperatures between 1.5C and 4C.

The JRC said its findings demonstrated climate conditions significantly affect tourism demand, with coastal regions being the most impacted areas.

Clear 'north-south' pattern

It said they also highlighted “a clear north-south” pattern in changes to tourism demand, with northern regions benefiting from climate change and southern regions facing significant reductions in tourism demand.

The report noted there was 'an unequivocal signal towards worse conditions for tourism during summer' in southern Europe. Picture: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

The JRC said the pattern becomes more pronounced and acute with higher warming scenarios, with tourism levels facing an average decrease of over 9% on the Greek Ionian islands like Corfu and Paxos if global warming increased by 4C on average.

At the other extreme, such an increase in temperature is also projected to result in tourism levels increasing by almost 16% in west Wales.

The largest losses — representing a reduction in tourism by more than 5% — are predicted across Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal.

The report noted there was “an unequivocal signal towards worse conditions for tourism during summer” in southern Europe.

It claimed the decrease could be substantial in many areas and “potentially becoming unsuitable for tourism under stringent warming”. 

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

However, if climate warming was limited to an average increase of 1.5C in temperatures, current levels of tourism in 80% of European regions would only be affected slightly.

The most affected area in such a scenario would be Cyprus, with tourism numbers down almost 1.9%, while coastal regions in Finland would enjoy a growth of over 3.2%.

In contrast, the highest gains with increases in excess of 5% in tourism will be distributed across Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK.

The JRC report found rising temperatures would also lead to changes in seasonal demand, with relative reductions in summer and increases in the shoulder and winter seasons.

Coastal regions in northern Europe are expected to experience significant increases in excess of 5% in demand during summer and early autumn months.

Conversely, the number of tourists is projected to fall by over 10% in southern coastal regions over the same period compared to current levels.

However, the decline in tourist numbers during the summer would be partially offset by increases in spring, autumn and winter seasons.

The report noted Europe is the most visited tourist region in the world with about 582 million tourists each year — 51% of all international arrivals.