Met Éireann research to shape future building design in the face of climate change

Timoleague in West Cork after a night of heavy snow last January. Met Éireann has said that temperatures in Cork could fall to around -9C in future winters. Picture: Andy Gibson.

Met Éireann research is to be used to guide the design and construction of future building projects in the face of a changing climate.

New reports show how a rise in global temperatures is likely to lead to increased rainfall across the country and more frequent heatwaves during the summer.

In a warmer climate, more water and moisture is held in the air, which can result in greater intensity and frequency of rainfall. Met Éireann says that the annual number of wet days (more than 20mm of rain) is projected to increase by 10-14% in Ireland between 2041 and 2060.

Similarly, the annual number of very wet days (more than 30mm of rain) is projected to increase by 21-31% over the same period.

Overheating events

The research also predicts that overheating events will reach a peak around the mid-century, even if emissions are contained to the most optimistic scenario. In the most pessimistic scenario of high emissions, the research suggests there will be a substantial increase in the number of overheating events.

Both of these weather events create challenges for the construction industry. Hotter summers will mean greater cooling demands for buildings. The heat may also result in negative health outcomes for those living there, as well as higher energy consumption costs.

Increased rainfall

The increased frequency and intensity of rainfall creates a greater risk of localised flooding, particularly in areas in the south-west and west of the country where rainfall has typically been higher over the past few decades.

Many parts of the country have already experienced the impact of extreme weather events. In October last year, Cork City was hit by flash flooding after 55mm of rain fell in the space of a few hours.

This increased rainfall will likely require robust flood defences for at-risk areas. Long-promised flood defences in Glanmire are expected to begin construction this summer, after the minister of State for the Office of Public Works, Patrick O’Donovan, stated that “money is not an issue” earlier this year.

Cork City Council is currently in the process of appointing a contractor, and once selected, the works are expected to take three years to complete.

Head of the Climate Services Division at Met Éireann, Keith Lambkin, said its research will “assist a variety of sectors, allowing planners and policy-makers to make decisions now that will help protect against climate and weather risks in the future".

For example, planners can use the specialised temperature maps in this research to help improve the resilience of structures against factors such as possible future temperature extremes,” he said.

The project is funded by the Department of Housing, which says the reports are “an important action of our Climate Action Plan as well as the National Adaptation Framework — the strategy to reduce the vulnerability of the country to the negative effects of climate change".

“The outputs of this analysis can be used in numerous ways to inform public policy and to future-proof investment,” it stated, particularly relating to the construction of bridges, roadways, and buildings.

The research will be used to inform national building standards and ensure buildings are climate-resilient over their full design life.

Previous releases from the project looked at the projected difference in minimum and maximum air temperature across the country. 

In Cork, temperatures may reach up to 31C over the next 50 years during the summer months, before falling to around -9C in winter.

This means buildings and other structures will have to be able to withstand the swings in temperatures experienced over the course of the year, maintaining sufficient heat in the winter, while also providing a cool respite during summer heatwaves.

CLIMATE & SUSTAINABILITY HUB