World is 'nowhere near 1.5C warming target'
The 1.5C figure in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement refers to the limit of warming compared to the pre-industrial age that the world must adhere to in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. Picture: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File
Greenhouse gas emissions are creeping downwards but remain far short of what is required this decade to adequately stay within the 1.5C target to limit the fallout from climate change.
That is according to a newly released assessment from the UN, which found that the combined climate pledges of 192 countries plus the EU under the Paris Agreement of 2015 could still put the world on track for around 2.5C of global warming by the end of the century.
The historic Paris Agreement came at Cop21, the UN-backed event that brings commitments from world leaders to deal with climate change. Cop27 will take place in the Egyptian resort of Sharm-El-Sheikh next month, after the Cop26 event was held in Glasgow last November.
The 1.5C figure in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement refers to the limit of warming compared to the pre-industrial age that the world must adhere to in order to avoid catastrophic climate change, scientists have repeatedly said.
The UN's latest report showed that current commitments made by various governments will actually increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, it said.
Last year’s analysis also showed that projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. This year's analysis shows that emissions are no longer increasing after 2030.
However, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend that science says is necessary this decade, the UN said.
Executive secretary of UN Climate Change Simon Stiell said: "The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year.
“But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5C world.
“To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”
The European Commission claimed the EU wants increased action at global level to tackle what it calls “the interconnected climate and biodiversity crises”, following protracted tussling among various EU ministers as to what the bloc should push for at Cop27.
Executive vice president for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans said: “The climate and biodiversity crises are intimately related, and we cannot tackle one without addressing the other. Setting targets is not enough.
“We need to move from ambition to action."
The event in Sharm-El-Sheikh has already been a lightning rod for controversy, with Human Rights Watch and other groups claiming the host country is stifling dissent from climate scientists.
Egypt, which is seeing the likes of rising sea levels and water scarcity already having an impact, has silenced critics from inside the country, according to a report from the human rights organisation.
The Egyptian government has severely curtailed environmental groups’ ability to carry out independent policy, advocacy, and field work essential to protecting the country’s natural environment, it claimed.
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