Cyberattack or major storm would have 'catastrophic' impact on electricity grid

ESB crews restore power to homes in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare on the west coast of Ireland after Storm Franklin.

Ireland could face a catastrophic, wide-scale electricity blackout in the event of a cyberattack, a major storm, or a shortage of fossil fuels.

A cyberattack on grid-connected IT systems, although deemed ‘unlikely’, could have ‘disastrous’ consequences, including a widescale blackout lasting for days, a new report by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities has found.

The report identifies risks, as well as devising strategies to better deal with them.

A total of 26 scenarios were assessed for risk under the categories: extreme weather; malicious attack; primary equipment failure; technical failure; natural disaster; primary energy shortage; human factors; market failure; infrastructure delivery deficit.

Insider attack

Under a cyberattack, power restoration may take more than two days, the CRU report warns. While such attacks are deemed to be unlikely, the risk is not zero, as was seen in the context of the cyberattack which crippled the HSE’s systems last year.

The report also notes that an insider attack, while ‘very unlikely’, could also have a ‘critical’ impact.

An insider attack on the control centre, although considered ‘very rare’, could quickly cause system-wide blackout, equipment damage, and a lengthy restoration time, the report warned.

Extreme weather — an increasingly common occurrence with global warming — could also result in power outages.

A storm, cold spell, or heatwave could all have critical impacts on the power grid, the CRU warned.

A storm with sustained 10-minute wind speeds peaking at over 90km/h and gusting over 130km/h at multiple locations (similar to Storm Darwin in 2014) could seriously impact the grid.

Historically, such storms occur once in 15-30 years, but this may increase with climate change.

Such a storm could leave the country without electricity for three days, with additional clean-up time, and it would also probably impact the North and UK, potentially further restricting power supply.

A solar storm, although very unlikely, as such storms are rare, could cause long-term damage to electricity supply, although a protocol is in place to forecast and minimise such an impact.

Fossil fuels

A fossil fuel shortage, including natural gas, though deemed ‘unlikely’, could have ‘disastrous effects’ on Ireland’s energy supply.

A major fossil fuel shortage could be caused by the UK’s gas supply to Ireland stopping for up to one month.

It could also be caused by a full loss of supply (for example due to a technical failure) for a shorter period.

The CRU report said that the impact of such a shortage would be “heavily influenced” by wind power availability during the crisis.

Paul Deane, research fellow at UCC’s MaREI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, said that such an interruption of access to fossil fuels would be “catastrophic”.

“We have huge reliance on natural gas in the electricity sector in Ireland," he said. 

"And our modern economy relies on electricity — we need it for our homes, our hospitals, everything. We wouldn’t be able to survive with any prolonged physical interruption of natural gas coming in from the UK, it would be catastrophic for the economy and very serious for society.

In Ireland, 87% of all our energy comes from fossil fuels, and most of that is imported.

“The risk of these things happening is very low. But if it happened, it would be catastrophic.

“Ireland is one of the most reliant countries on fossil fuels in Europe. We’re seeing the consequence of that reliance at the moment, not only with the high costs of electricity but also with home heating, transport, everything.

"Ireland is very much exposed to the whims of the market at the moment.”