Next three years critical to avoid 'unprecedented heatwaves, storms, and water shortages'

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres was hugely critical of some governments' failure to react to climate change saying that some government and business leaders "are saying one thing and doing another". Picture: Eduardo Munoz/Pool Photo via AP

The next three years will be the most critical in recent global history if "unprecedented heatwaves, terrifying storms, and widespread water shortages" are to be avoided.

That is the stark warning from the latest assessment of the UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which said it is "now or never" if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

To play its part, the public must immediately be encouraged to move to more plant-based diets, heat our homes in a more environmentally friendly way, and take up walking and cycling or driving electric cars. Our cities must be made greener, more walkable and healthier.

There will need to be fewer flights taken by individuals, the widespread electrification of transport and the rapid adaptation of more renewable energy.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will have to peak by 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030, while at the same time, methane — one of Ireland's biggest emissions culprits — would also need to be reduced by about a third if the 1.5-degree target is to be met, the IPCC said.

Even if this was accomplished, "it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century", the report added.

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres was blistering in his remarks on governmental failure to act, saying: 

Some government and business leaders are saying one thing but doing another. Simply put, they are lying. And the results will be catastrophic.

Even if all the pledges made up to 2020 had been implemented, a rise of 3.2 degrees would occur, the scientists found. Mr Guterres said that would mean heatwaves, storms, and water shortages on an unprecedented scale.

When it comes to Ireland's share of the heavy lifting, emissions from agriculture remain an elephant in the room, according to a leading University College Cork (UCC) scientist.

Plant scientist and lecturer at the School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences and the Environmental Research Institute, Dr Eoin Lettice said: "The agriculture sector in Ireland is not on a 'sustainable low-carbon path' according to the Climate Change Advisory Council. 

This will need to be tackled, as farming is the largest contributor by sector to greenhouse gas emissions in the country.

Among the most problematic issues is what we do about methane, he said.

"Methane is a short-lived but potent GHG which is derived mainly from cattle in the Irish context. The IPCC calls for a 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 if we are to avert disaster. 

Dr Eoin Lettice, a lecturer in plant science at the School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Science at UCC: The agricultural sector in Ireland is not on a 'sustainable low-carbon path' according to the Climate Change Advisory Council. Picture Dan Linehan

"Despite signing the Global Methane Pledge at Cop26 in Glasgow and committing to this reduction and timeframe, the Government was quick to clarify that they consider this a global pledge and that Ireland may not reach anywhere near this target. 

"The need for urgent reductions in methane emissions should supercede attempts to protect sectors that are unsustainable," Dr Lettice said.

Stop Climate Chaos (SCC), made up of 30 Irish civil society organisations, said that government action to reduce emissions immediately and phase out fossil fuels "must begin now, not in 10 years' time".

It pointed to the IPCC's finding that average annual GHGs were at their highest recorded level between 2010 and 2019 and that global emissions from energy reached a record high in 2021.

The IPCC report said that the global temperature will stabilise when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. 

"For 1.5 degrees Celsius, this means achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally in the early 2050s; for 2 degrees Celsius, it is in the early 2070s," it said.

Leading Irish contributor to previous IPCC reports, Maynooth University's Prof Peter Thorne, said the pathway was narrow but achievable.

"Nationally, the Climate Act puts in place the governance aspects but governance is nothing without action. We now need to see progress on the ground. Moving to remove our dependency on fossil fuels would increase our national energy security and stop funding, in many cases, questionable regimes," he said.