Children will have to emit 10 times less than grandparents to meet climate targets

The IPCC report said the global temperature in 2020 was nearly 1.1C warmer than 19th-century levels, and that the evidence was clear and incontrovertible that people are driving global warming.

Children born today will have to emit less than 10 times the emissions of their grandparents if global net-zero climate targets are to be reached by 2050, a new analysis by energy experts shows.

International Energy Agency (IEA) modellers and analysts calculated the burden on the children of today by predicting the average lifetime carbon footprint, according to a person’s year of birth.

Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen, and Hyeji Kim used the IEA's own Net Zero By 2050 roadmap from May 2021 — which sets out the very narrow global path to balancing the volume of greenhouse gases produced against those removed from the atmosphere — to make their calculations. 

"In the IEA scenario where the world manages to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the average person born in the 1950s would emit 350 tonnes of CO2 over their lifetime.  Babies born in the 2020s would emit on average a mere 34 tonnes of CO2 each in the net-zero scenario. 

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"In other words, the average Baby Boomer — defined by the Pew Center as individuals born between 1950 and 1964 — would emit 10 times more in their lifetime than the average member of Generation Alpha, which refers to those born today or in the coming years. 

"Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, would average 110 tonnes of CO2 over their lifetimes if the world manages to reach net-zero by 2050," the authors said.

Reductions will need to be greater in countries with historically high rates of emissions, the analysis found.

"Countries with historically high per capita emissions, such as in North America and Europe, need to achieve much larger generational reductions than countries with historically low per capita emissions, such as India. 

"In our Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the lifetime CO2 footprints of individuals born in the US or EU in the 1950s will be around 15 times greater than the footprints of their descendants born in the 2020s," it said.

Encouragingly, today's generations are far more active in tackling the climate crisis, the authors said — but that requires current governments and leaders accelerating action to match the enthusiasm of young people. Cleaner and more efficient technology will also be crucial, the analysis said.

🗣 “Today’s youth are more exposed to climate damage than their parents, motivating many of them to tackle the challenge of reducing CO2 footprints.”

Our new commentary examines the role younger generations can play in successful energy transitions 👉 https://t.co/Doey4iPSBL pic.twitter.com/uL5xwpxZzq

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) February 16, 2022

"Clean-energy technologies require years of research and development to reach the market. Sweeping systemic decarbonisation is necessary, not only to allow younger generations more flexibility in their lifestyle choices but also to safeguard the future for younger generations. 

"This makes it imperative that today’s leaders set in motion the necessary policies and investments right now," the authors said.

The stark findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in the summer led to a range of new commitments at the UN climate change summit Cop26 in Glasgow in November.

The IPCC report said the global temperature in 2020 was nearly 1.1C warmer than 19th-century levels, and that the evidence was clear and incontrovertible that people are driving global warming.

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