State Papers: John Major conceded in 1992 that the IRA could not be defeated

The British prime minister John Major conceded that the Provisional IRA could not be beaten militarily in his first meeting with the newly-elected taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, in late 1992.Picture: Gerry Penny/AFP/Getty

The British prime minister John Major conceded during his first meeting with the newly-elected taoiseach Albert Reynolds in late 1992 that it would be “very difficult” to beat the Provisional IRA militarily.

Confidential State files released by the National Archives reveal how Mr Major shared his pessimistic outlook about a security-only solution to the Troubles in Northern Ireland with his Irish counterpart at a meeting in Downing St on February 26, 1992.

Mr Reynolds had asked the British prime minister if he thought the IRA could be defeated.

Mr Major replied that it would be “very difficult” militarily, but that he could never make such an admission in public.

Asked who carried the “clout” within the Republican movement, Mr Reynolds said it was the IRA army council, but he would not “go into names”.

Mr Reynolds continued: “They are very cohesive. You can take it from me there is very strict discipline. There is a command structure and a hierarchy.”

However, the Taoiseach said he was certain that the IRA leadership was serious about peace.

At the meeting, which came against a background of an intensification in paramilitary violence including a bomb attack in Whitehall, Mr Major also stressed that the IRA were wrong if they thought Britain was suffering from “battle fatigue”. 

While he vowed that Britain had “no selfish interest in Northern Ireland”, the Tory leader said his government would also not countenance people who wished to remain within the UK being forced out of it against their will. Mr Major told the Taoiseach that “we cannot be persuaders [for a united Ireland]”. He stressed that he could not and would not say anything to “encourage” people in Northern Ireland to leave the UK. Mr Major remarked: 

“Think of what happened in the Falklands? You cannot have a British government persuading British citizens to go out of the United Kingdom.”

Mr Reynolds, who had been elected Taoiseach 15 days earlier, received a positive response from Mr Major to his calls for renewed talks on political structures to facilitate the Northern Ireland peace process.

The Taoiseach emphasised that he would not be “found lacking in courage” and would rather fail than not try anything at all to progress the issue.

The Fianna Fáil leader had pointed out to the British prime minister that he lived within 35 miles of the border, so he had an understanding of both communities in Northern Ireland, which he also knew through business. Mr Reynolds said: 

I appreciate the fears of both sides; in any moves, we must take these fears into account. 

Mr Major also acknowledged that they must be prepared to do “unconventional things”.

In response to the British prime minister’s puzzlement why the IRA was still engaged in a bombing campaign if they wanted peace, the Taoiseach replied that the key was in understanding the IRA’s attitudes and motivations.

“They always do that,” Mr Reynolds explained. 

If you watch closely, you will see that before a cessation of violence, they always become more active. They always like to appear that if a ceasefire comes about, then they have not acted from weakness. 

Mr Major described himself as “a political realist” who wanted the violence in Northern Ireland to end and to offer republicans a chance to engage in talks if the violence ended.

The British prime minister said he understood the importance of symbolism in Northern Ireland, although he had “the misfortune not to be an Irishman”.