Racial tensions and energy instability among key national risks

The assessment warned that 'failing to maintain an ongoing level of social cohesion and a mitigation of inequalities especially as second and third generation migrant communities emerge, represents a significant risk of negative consequences'.

Risks of racial tensions, energy price hikes, and cyberattacks are just some of the key threats facing Ireland, according to a high-level State analysis.

The national risk assessment 2021-2022 also flags potential “significant repercussions” of armed conflict across Europe — though it does not specifically reference feared Russian military aggression against Ukraine.

The report, published by the Department of the Taoiseach, details the ongoing impact of Covid-19 on society and the economy, with Government financial support pushing Irish debt levels to among the highest in the EU.

The report said Brexit has introduced new risks around immigration, including the potential for illegal immigration from Britain to Ireland, increased asylum claims, and applications for international protection.

It said this was against the background of an increase in the immigrant population in a relatively short time compared to other EU countries.

The assessment warned: “Failing to maintain an ongoing level of social cohesion and a mitigation of inequalities especially as second and third generation migrant communities emerge, represents a significant risk of negative consequences.

'Divisions being heightened'

“Divisions being heightened between groups of people along lines of gender, ethnicity and educational status can be fomented by disparate political factions.”

It said ethnic minorities were over-represented in “precarious” employment — characterised by rostered hours, low pay, and bad conditions — and that this did not help the aim of integration.

Other key risks facing the country are:

• Armed conflict in Europe: Potentially impacting on energy supplies, communication infrastructure, transport routes, and the environment;
• Climate change: The reduction in the Greenland ice-sheet could have “enormous implications” for Ireland;
• Energy: Ireland is “highly vulnerable” to any disruptions to supply at a time of increasing energy demands in the country, including from data centres;
• Hybrid attacks: Sophisticated disinformation attacks on Ireland (as has happened elsewhere in the EU) could pose a risk to the State’s democratic institutions, exacerbate tensions, and destabilise the EU;
• Cybernetic: Failures in cybernetic, as highlighted in the HSE cyberattack, demonstrate the significant impact on critical infrastructure and reputational risk to the digital economy.
• Economy and debt: Long-term “scarring” of the economy caused by the pandemic and the €38bn spent by the Government to support individuals and businesses has pushed gross public debt to an estimated €236.7bn, making Ireland among the most indebted in the EU.

The assessment said Brexit introduced “a destabilising element” to the politics of the North and that there was a risk that the impact of Brexit on trade and identity could feature in assembly elections, expected in May 2022.

It said Britain’s withdrawal from the EU has introduced “profound shifts” in the relationship between Ireland and Britain.

The assessment said that “another threat that may impact” Ireland is aviation security, given Ireland’s geographic positioning, as well as the continuing threat to urban populations from the use of vehicles as instruments of terror.