UN scientists won't bow to pressure to water down climate crisis language

Activists taking part in a 'climate strike' demonstration, part of the global 'Fridays for Future' movement led by Swedish teenage environmentalist Greta Thunberg, in London last month. Photo: AP/David Cliff

United Nations-backed scientists will not be swayed by countries like Saudi Arabia and Australia attempting to water down stark language surrounding the climate crisis, Irish experts have said.

An investigation by Greenpeace UK this week revealed that the likes of Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Australia have lobbied to have scientists play down their recommendations on winding down fossil fuel usage as a means to tackling climate change.

It comes just days before world leaders converge on Glasgow, Scotland for the Cop26 UN climate change conference, where 200 countries are being tasked with outlining their plans to cut emissions by 2030.

Greenpeace UK's investigative wing Unearthed revealed that "fossil fuel producers including Australia, Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), are lobbying the IPCC – the world’s leading authority on climate change – to remove or weaken a key conclusion that the world needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels".

The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which delivered the first part of a global assessment of climate science in August. 

The report referenced more than 14,000 scientific papers, with 234 authors from around the world – including Maynooth University's professor in physical geography (climate change) Peter Thorne – after it received tens of thousands of comments on earlier drafts from scientists and governments.

The IPCC report concludes it is “unequivocal” that human activity pushed up global temperatures by 1.1C, causing rapid and widespread changes to land, atmosphere and oceans that are unprecedented for many centuries or even many thousands of years.

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According to Unearthed, "Australia, one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas, shared Saudi Arabia’s rejection of the IPCC’s analysis that fossil fuels urgently need to be phased out of the world’s energy systems".

It added: "Japan, which is hugely reliant on fossil fuels in its energy and transport systems, rejects a key finding in the report’s summary for policymakers detailing how coal and gas fired power stations will, on average, need to be shut down within 9 and 12 years respectively to keep warming below 1.5°C and 16 and 17 years to keep warming below 2°C."

However, University College Cork (UCC) experts said that scientists would hold firm on the evidence, despite lobbying.

Dr Hannah Daly, a lecturer in sustainable energy and energy systems modelling and a former modeller and analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that their comments were not accepted by the scientists, who have control.

Senior research fellow at Cork-based MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Dr Paul Deane, echoed Dr Daly's view.

"The IPCC review process typically receives thousands of comments for a broad range of stakeholder and vested interests but only comments that are backed by reviewed scientific evidence make it into the final reports.

"For example, the suggestion by the Saudi Oil Minister to remove 'the need for urgent and accelerated mitigation actions at all scales' is based on opinion rather than scientific analysis and therefore would not be considered," he said.