Surge capacity may be triggered if ICU predictions met, says HSE chief

Paul Reid, HSE chief executive, said the last couple of weeks should be a 'very real rain check' for us all, stating there is a need to strengthen the basic level of defences even for those who are vaccinated. Picture: Sasko Lazarov / Photocall Ireland

The chief executive of the HSE has said surge capacity measures may be triggered if predictions for 150 people in intensive care are met, impacting other areas of the healthcare system.

Paul Reid said the National Public Health Emergency Team's (Nphet) modelling of up to 1,000 people in hospital and 150 people in ICU was not “off the wall” considering the current trends.

If this point is reached, surge capacity may have to be triggered, which would see the redeployment of some staff from non-Covid care and the closing of some wards in order to increase ICU capacity.

Speaking to RTÉ's Morning Ireland, the HSE chief also raised concerns about a lower uptake of the vaccine among pregnant women.

Twelve pregnant women have been admitted to ICU between the period of June to October, 11 of whom were not vaccinated, and one was partially vaccinated.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

While numbers in ICU and hospitals saw a decrease on Thursday night, the reality is that this will grow over the weekend and coming weeks, Paul Reid told RTÉ's Morning Ireland.

“Our concern is particularly that lag effect that we’re all used to seeing where we have high levels of cases over the last two weeks in particular and how they will turn into hospitalisations,” he said.

Mr Reid said the past couple of weeks should be a “very real rain check” for us all, stating there was a need to strengthen the basic level of defences even for those who are vaccinated.

Site-by-site basis

When asked at what point they trigger surge capacity, he said there was no single number and each hospital has to approach it on a site-by-site basis.

“What surge really means, is first of all from ICU, we have just short of 300 ICU beds. 

"If 150 of those or half of those are taken up through Covid, then yes, we have to bring on more capacity."

According to Mr Reid, surge means redeploying significant elements of the healthcare workforce from non-Covid care, closing wards where there would have been other procedures happening, and moving skilled staff to increase ICU capacity.

He said surge was not a “magic switch” that solves the issue but rather a “process” that strengthens capacity.

If we get to that point, a surge could potentially cripple other areas of the health services, he said.

However, he said, “we can turn this around” by getting back to “really good public health measures” as society reopens.

As of lunchtime on Thursday, there were 448 Covid-19 patients in hospitals, which was up 12% on last week, but down from the 486 on Wednesday with 88 people in ICU.