Reopening society: 'It is a time for caution' says Niac chief 

Dr Karina Butler said that Niac is working “very hard” to collate the evidence in order to give the best advice. Picture Paddy Cummins /Collins Dublin

The chairperson of the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) has said it is a time for caution as the Government prepares to detail the next stage of easing Covid-19 restrictions.

Dr Karina Butler said that Niac is working “very hard” to collate the evidence in order to give the best advice to the Department of Health to help them guide the Government on the next phase of reopening.

The growing concerns that the full reopening of society will not take place as planned next Friday, October 22. 

Dr Butler said their advice will be given when all the key indicators have been fully analysed.

“The advice will be given as soon as we have it ready to go.” 

She said the considerations around any plans for further reopening society are multi-faceted.

“I think it is very important to continue our focus on trying to make sure that everyone is vaccinated."

When asked about the possibility of reopening next week, she said: "I think it is a time for caution and we have to see how things can be done safely.” 

Commenting on the increase in hospitalisation and ICU numbers, she said the "real elephant in the room” is that a large segment of the population remains unvaccinated.

“We really have to look as to why that is the case and can we fill the gaps in knowledge, the gaps in information to give those people the confidence and trust that, in fact, getting vaccinated is the way forward.” 

Data from the US shows that if you are unvaccinated, you are 17 times more likely to end up in hospital, she said.

Dr Butler noted that hospitalisation numbers are going up and that people are “rightly concerned” by this.

“But again, if we look at them, who is ending up in ICU? 80% of the people ending up in ICU are not fully vaccinated and of the others, most of them, 98% have underlying conditions - primarily conditions that impact on their ability to respond to the vaccine.” 

The median age for deaths in Ireland is 82 with most of those having underlying conditions or because of age, their immune systems are not responding.

When asked if waning vaccine protection is playing a role in breakthrough infection, she said: “In terms of the waning immunity we do know that your immunity in terms of protection against infection certainly seems to drop off, actually quite quickly over the first couple of months and then more slowly.

“But absolutely, it declines over time.” 

Noting the desire for a solution to getting to “somewhat normal” Dr Butler said the vaccination programme is still key.

“At every stage of this road, it has not been straightforward. There have been twists and turns what we do know is that the vaccination is really to the front and ore of getting us back.

“There are many uncertainties. We are dealing with those and steering the course," 

She added that the vaccine programme is successful in keeping people "overwhelming safer” than without vaccines.

Meanwhile, immunology expert, Professor Paul Moynagh has warned that people who are not vaccinated are taking a risk and should be provided with more information.

“They’ve got a choice between the vaccine and the virus, if they take that risk, it’s a roll of the dice,” he told Newstalk Breakfast.

The virus would have a much more serious impact on their health, he added.

Prof Moynagh said that the increased number of Covid cases in the last few days should not be a surprise as viruses are more easily spread in the autumn and winter and the Delta variant was highly contagious.

There was also the issue of breakthrough infections, which were not a failure and were part of the normal immune response four to five months after the second dose which tended to wane.

“This is not a vaccine failure, it is a normal part of the immune response”.

The main problem was the 300,000 people who were not vaccinated, he said. “The message has to go out to them.” Prof Moynagh also called for the use of rapid antigen testing at social events and portable filtration systems rather than a single focus on people’s behaviour.

More attention should be paid to the numbers being hospitalised and in ICU than the number of cases, he said as the vaccination programme meant that many who tested positive did not experience symptoms or serious illness.

“The vaccine is still doing a very good job.”

A meeting is due to be held next week with government and health officials on the plans for 22 October.