Q&A: The implications if the DUP pulls down powersharing in Northern Ireland

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has said the Stormont Assembly "will not survive" if problems created by the Northern Ireland Protocol are not resolved. Picture: Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie

The DUP has threatened to pull down powersharing at Stormont if major changes to Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol are not secured.

Here are the answers to some of the questions raised by the party's dramatic move.

How can the DUP collapse powersharing?

The institutions created through peace process agreements can only operate with the participation of both the largest unionist party and the largest nationalist party in the North.

As such, only Sinn Féin and the DUP have the ability to unilaterally collapse devolution. If either withdraws from the structures, they can no longer function.

That is how devolution imploded in 2017, when the Sinn Féin deputy First Minister at the time, the late Martin McGuinness, resigned in protest at the DUP's handling of a botched green energy scheme. That political impasse lasted three years, with devolution only restored in 2020.

How is the party justifying the move?

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has claimed the new economic barriers on trade between the UK and Northern Ireland are disrupting the lives and livelihoods of everyone in the North, while also risking the constitutional integrity of the UK.

Mr Donaldson has cautioned against tinkering around the edges of the arrangements, and has insisted that wholesale changes are required.

He has characterised his approach as an attempt to inject urgency into stalled efforts to secure changes to the protocol, warning that his party will not accept years of slow negotiations or repeated moves to extend protocol grace periods in lieu of permanent solutions.

With the fate of the protocol in the hands of the EU and UK government, collapsing devolution is one of the few levers the DUP can pull.

Are there other factors in play?

DUP HQ has been rocked by extremely poor polling results this year. The latest saw it trail in joint fourth place, with public support rated at just 13%, compared to  28% of the electorate in the last Assembly election in 2017. Significantly, in last month's poll, the party lagged behind both of its main unionist rivals, the Ulster Unionists and the TUV.

It is also facing the uncomfortable prospect of Sinn Féin emerging from the next Assembly poll as the largest party, and therefore able to take the First Minister's role.

Why will the DUP face difficulty defending its position?

It is yet to be seen whether the DUP follows through with its threat and pulls down the administration.

If it does push the nuclear button, the party would undoubtedly find itself in an awkward political position.

In so doing, the DUP would be left open to the very same accusations it has aimed at Sinn Féin for the last four years, namely, jeopardising public service delivery for narrow political interest.

Northern Ireland has the worst hospital waiting-list times in Britain, and the DUP has consistently blamed this situation on Sinn Féin and the three-year powersharing impasse.

If he ultimately follows through with the threat to collapse the executive, Mr Donaldson will be banking that unionist fury over the Brexit border will trump the inevitable anger that will be directed at a party that brings down devolution in the middle of a pandemic and at a time when 335,000 people are stuck on waiting lists.