Healthcare funding needs to increase by €15bn per year to meet demands of ageing population

Research, residential care and pay-related costs are all set to contribute to the soaring health bill. 

The cost of delivering non-hospital health and social care could increase by up to €15bn per year due to rising costs and the population growing and ageing, a leading think-tank has suggested.

Research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), published on Wednesday, projects significant expenditure for most primary, community, and long-term health and social care services in Ireland between 2019 and 2035.

The projections, which take into account the expected impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, incorporates a range of scenarios for changes in demographics, healthy ageing, policy measures, and costs.

The analysis found that the cost of delivering care, particularly pay-related costs, is the main driver of expenditure growth for health and social care services.

High-tech medicine

Of the services considered, the largest increases in expenditure are projected to be for high-tech medicines dispensed in the community, long-term residential care and home support services.

The research projects an increased expenditure of between €1.6bn and €2bn for public and private general practice in 2035, and spending on high-tech medicines is forecast to rise by between €2.3bn and €4.4bn in 2035.

Long-term residential care, meanwhile, is predicted to cost an additional €3.8bn and €5.7bn annually by 2035, while the cost of public and private home support is expected to increase by between €1.2bn and €3bn during the same period.

“The findings provide an evidence base for workforce and capacity planning and for the implementation of important Sláintecare proposals,” the report says.

Identifying approaches to address the projected increases in the cost of care delivery should be an important consideration for policymakers.

However, the report adds that the scope of the analysis was hampered by poor data available for many services.

“Policymakers should prioritise development of a health data infrastructure that caters for the requirements of both local and national-level service planners,” it said.

Brendan Walsh, one of the authors of the report, said it highlights the need for “substantial investment" in primary, community and long-term healthcare in the coming years.

“The results provide policymakers with evidence on what funding pressures are likely to arise in different parts of the system. We find that continuing current trends will lead to expenditure growth on high-tech medicines and long-term residential care that far exceeds that of general practice and home support in the medium term,” he said.

“This information should help policymakers frame decisions about what parts of the system should be prioritised for investment and where to focus policies to contain cost pressures.”