Nphet's 'second-best scenario' is 200+ in ICU in coming months, says Donnelly

Mr Donnelly said Ireland has the vaccine programme in its favour, "going from strength to strength". Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

New NPHET modelling says, in the second-best scenario, over 200 people will be in ICU in a few months, Stephen Donnelly has said.

Speaking in the Seanad on the government's new legislation for domestic Covid-19 certificates, the Minister for Health said the Delta variant is much more transmission admissible than anything we've seen so far in this pandemic.

"Yesterday, almost 1000 cases were reported," he said.

"Today, the figure will likely be significantly higher than that, and it's going to continue to grow. We're seeing particularly high infection rates right now for those aged 16 to 24, as well as a rapid growth in infections for those aged 24, to 29, the most up to date modelling includes the NIAC changes, which allows us to accelerate the vaccine programme for younger age groups.

"The second-best scenario from NPHET now shows that over 200 people would be in ICU in just a few months time.

"That would mean the curtailment of a lot of planned health care for people in Ireland, which is something we have to avoid."

Mr Donnelly said Ireland has the vaccine programme in its favour, "going from strength to strength".

"Our ability to respond to the variant, by following the public health advice, and by keeping each other safe right now for people who are not yet fully vaccinated is as important as at any time since the start of this pandemic, to continue to follow the public health advice. If you become symptomatic self isolate immediately and get yourself tested, please avoid higher-risk activities, including in your socialisation and international travel.

"When it comes to this bill, there were calls from some quarters to open up hospitality fully.

"We've seen in some other countries just how quickly that would further accelerate the increase in cases and in hospitalizations in Ireland, others have been calling for opening up just with a test, even an antigen test, again, given the rapidly increasing prevalence of the disease, particularly amongst those not yet fully vaccinated.

"I hope that these calls will be dropped and that the proposed approach, which is a safe approach is supported."

Mr Donnelly added that the online portal opens for those aged 25, to 29, ahead of schedule.

By the end of this week, all second doses of AstraZeneca will have been provided and three in every five adults are now fully vaccinated.

"And this weekend, we will administer the five millionth vaccine," he said.