Electric vehicles not a silver bullet solution to emissions crisis, expert warns

Relying on electric vehicles to solve the transport emissions crisis is akin to tackling obesity by calculating how much salad to eat while still overwhelmingly consuming junk food, one of Ireland's leading energy experts has said.

Relying on electric vehicles to solve the transport emissions crisis is akin to tackling obesity by calculating how much salad to eat while still overwhelmingly consuming junk food, one of Ireland's leading energy experts has said.

Dr Hannah Daly, a lecturer in sustainable energy and energy systems modelling at University College Cork (UCC) and a former modeller and analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), was speaking at the Oireachtas Climate Committee on the 51% emissions reduction targets by 2030.

Ireland needs to immediately minimise the number of additional petrol and diesel vehicles brought into the country, Dr Daly said, including hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

"Our modelling sees very little role for these going forward," she said.

Dr Daly has been leading the development of a new Energy Systems Model and supporting the Climate Change Advisory Council on carbon budget deliberations.

The TIMES-Ireland Energy Systems Model assesses the implications of alternative future energy systems for the Irish economy, energy mix and dependence, and the environment.

"Energy systems modelling with TIMES-Ireland points to how very challenging meeting the target of halving greenhouse gases by 2030 will be...It is likely that the transport sector will be required to reduce emissions faster than other sectors."

The model sees transport emissions falling by between 45 and 65% by 2030, she said.

To succeed in this, it is likely that meeting the target of nearly one million electric vehicles (EVs) on our road by 2030 is necessary, but at the same time, that it will not be enough, according to Dr Daly.

"This point is reinforced by the recently published EPA emissions projections, which show that the measures in the 2019 Climate Action Plan, including the 1 million EV target, will only see emissions from transport reduced by a quarter, as growth in activity offsets the emissions savings from the measures.

"In my opinion, the narrative around setting mitigation targets based on the number of EVs in 2030 is problematic for several reasons. It would be like me planning to lose weight based on a target of how much salad I’m going to eat next year, when in reality I need to reduce junk food. 

"Similarly with transport, we should be focusing all efforts on reducing the number of cars burning petrol and diesel, and minimising their use. Electrification is an important way of achieving this, but by no means sufficient," Dr Daly said.

Congestion

Associate professor and head of department at the Centre for Transport Research in Trinity College Dublin, Dr Brian Caulfield, said EVs do not reduce the problem of congestion.

"There are some fundamental issues to consider about private vehicles, regardless of how they are fuelled. They take up a large amount of the built environmental space with roads and parking.

"Cars spend approximately 95% of their time parked. Cars cause congestion, and in 2017 it was estimated this could cost up to €2.08bn in 2033 in the Greater Dublin Area. Cars also cause air quality issues and increase particulate matter, EVs are also heavier which can make this problem worse," he said.

A national programme for shared EVs should be considered, according to Dr Caulfield.

"My research shows that shared cars have potential to reduce car ownership and encourage a greater use of non-car modes," he said.