Arlene Foster’s future as DUP leader ‘hangs in the balance’

Northern Ireland's First Minister Arlene Foster answers questions on her leadership during a visit to the Hammer Youth Centre, in Belfast. 

Arlene Foster’s future as DUP leader continues to hang in the balance after party colleagues mounted a heave against Stormont’s First Minister.

It is understood a significant number of DUP politicians have signed a letter of no confidence in Mrs Foster that was circulated among party MLAs, MPs and peers.

If those numbers are confirmed and subsequently replicated in any future leadership contest – a vote confined to MPs and MLAs – her five-and-a-half year tenure as leader would be set to end.

It remains unclear whether Mrs Foster would contest a leadership vote if one is triggered.

On Tuesday afternoon, the First Minister attempted to downplay the scale of the internal revolt, which comes amid mounting discontent among party faithful over her leadership.

“Stories on leadership come up from time to time, and it’s one of those times,” she said.

However, in an apparent indication of the escalating situation, Mrs Foster cancelled a scheduled meeting with Secretary of State Brandon Lewis and deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill on Tuesday evening.

In a statement, the DUP insisted questions over Mrs Foster’s future were an internal matter.

The party said its democratic electoral processes were for its members and declined to offer further comment.

There has been growing unease among DUP members about Mrs Foster and the wider party leadership in recent months.

The primary source of concern is the handling of the Brexit process. The DUP is facing anger from the wider loyalist and unionist community for the introduction of an Irish Sea border.

First Minister Arlene Foster has been accused of not being vociferous enough in opposition to the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol

Critics have accused Mrs Foster of failing to use the party’s influence at Westminster – particularly during its confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives – to secure a Brexit deal that saw Northern Ireland leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK.

She has also been accused of not being vociferous enough in opposition to the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol, which governs the new Brexit trading barriers between NI and GB, ahead of its introduction at the start of 2021.

Poor recent polling numbers have exacerbated the discontent within the party faithful, who are mindful of next May’s looming Assembly election.

Mrs Foster’s decision to abstain in a vote on gay conversion therapy last week appears to have further agitated sections of the party’s fundamentalist grassroots.

On Tuesday morning, the Belfast News Letter reported that several DUP constituency associations had written letters expressing concern at Mrs Foster’s abstention on a motion that called for a ban on gay conversion therapy but did not incorporate a specific mention of protections for religious practices.

The majority of her party Assembly colleagues voted against the motion, having failed to amend it to include reference to religious protections.

Mrs Foster was among only five party members, including fellow Stormont Executive ministers Peter Weir and Diane Dodds, who abstained.

That episode points to tensions between Mrs Foster, a member of the Church of Ireland and former Ulster Unionist, and the more traditional Free Presbyterian wing of the DUP, who perceive her as potentially too moderate on some social issues.

Speaking to BBC Radio Four today, former DUP special adviser Timothy Cairns said Ms Foster would be the “greatest political survivor in the history of UK politics” if she sees through a leadership contest.

“I don’t see how she sees this through. I think we’re now at 22 MLAs, we’re now at four MPs, who’ve signed this letter to the party chairman asking that a leadership election takes place,” he said.

“I think whatever happens, whether she tries to cling on, whether she resigns, there has to be a leadership contest sometime within the next seven to 10 days,” he added.