Zero Covid could not be realistically sustained, says health chief

Dr Colm Henry, Chief Clinical Officer. Picture: Leon Farrell / Photocall Ireland

The chief clinical officer of the HSE, Dr Colm Henry has said that while everyone aspired to zero-Covid, the issue was could it be realistically sustained.

“We all aspire to zero Covid and what we're trying to do now is the suppression of the huge levels of infection that we're seeing in the community, we're still seeing an average over the last five days of 1,200 cases per day which is half what it was last week, but it's still far too high,” he told RTÉ radio’s Morning Ireland.

The question of Zero Covid was not so much the shared aspiration to get figures down to the lowest possible level - it's how that can be realistically sustained, he said. 

“We've learned to our cost that's extremely difficult.” 

Dr Henry pointed out that in early December Ireland had the best 14-day incidence rate in Europe, “within a short time we were the second worst, the virus doesn't give you credit for good behaviour or for good results, it doesn't have any memory. 

"Increased socialisation means we saw a catastrophic fall in our performance.” 

The volume of sick people currently being seen was “completely unprecedented”, he said. 

“We know with monotonous regularity that if you're getting 2,500, 3,000 or 4,000 diagnoses of Covid per day that will translate in time to increased hospitalisation, increase in ICU and sadly increased deaths.” 

It's important that Ireland stick to the process (with EMA), he said. 

“It has a purpose behind it. The EMA has been working hand in hand, in an unparalleled, escalated way to approve vaccines, to assess the evidence as it goes through the Phase 3 trials.” 

Dr Henry acknowledged the concern expressed in Germany that relatively few older people had been included in the AstraZeneca trials which made it hard to draw confident conclusions, “but that doesn't mean that the vaccine isn't effective among older people and the EMA will consider the limited information available, but also how they can extrapolate from the results among younger people to older people - I would urge people, let's wait and see.

“We know what the absence of a vaccine means - we've seen that for the last 11 months and it doesn't look good. 

"The vaccine is the one beacon of hope we have in 2021 for older and younger people.” 

When asked, Dr Henry said that he could not give certainty about the roll out of the vaccination programme as there was uncertainty about supplies – “that's an experience not just shared by Ireland but all EU countries and beyond. AstraZenca would be more ideal because could be delivered through GPs – we will have to wait and see, we are awaiting approval.

“The vaccine offers great hope – this ia an unprecedented pandemic, unprecedented impact, has an unprecedented effect on our lives,” but there had also been unprecedented cooperation between researchers, universities, developers and governments. This should be cause for great hope, he added.

Earlier, the director-general of the HSE, Paul Reid has said that debate about a zero Covid strategy was frustrating and he attributed it to displaced anger.

Mr Reid told Newstalk Breakfast that anger and frustration about the virus and restrictions was being shifted “to something else” – it had been focused on young people, meat plants, international travel, but ultimately it was all about behaviour.

“I don’t believe it’s possible to lock it [Covid] out.” 

HSE CEO Paul Reid. Picture: Leon Farrell / Photocall Ireland

A full range of measures would be necessary to suppress the virus, he added. 

“It’s not about closing the island. I wish it were that simple.” 

Mr Reid said that the vaccine was “the road out of this awful mess, but it’s going to be a rocky road.” 

At present there were two levels of uncertainty – supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine and Germany’s decision not to use it to vaccinate the over-65s.

The situation would become clearer as other vaccines emerge, he said. “But we have to be frank and we are living with a good deal of uncertainty now.

When asked if Ireland would accept the AstraZeneca vaccine directly from the UK if it was offered, Mr Reid said that would be a political decision, but the HSE would prefer to work through the EMA as it would give the country the best supply of medicines for the future.

“We’re at the start of a very uncertain road, but it will get clearer.”

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said that a zero-Covid strategy would not be possible in Ireland.

Speaking last night, he said: “We are a small economy, dependent on those links that we have built very carefully as a country with the rest of Europe - dependent on them for a variety of economic and social and cultural reasons.


“Dependent on them for basic foodstuff, for basic medications and other essential things as part of daily living.

“We simply couldn’t realistically seal the borders of this country and stop movement of people in and out.”