'Too much social mixing' in December as health chief warns of 1,200 cases a day next month

Christmas shoppers on Grafton Street. File picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

A leading member of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned that there has been “too much social mixing” in the first week of December.

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Npeht Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, made the statement as he urged people to reduce their contacts.

Covid-19 cases have been rising in recent days, leading to a likelihood that restrictions will be reimposed on the public before New Year's Eve.

Last night, 484 new cases of the virus were confirmed with three additional deaths. The estimated 14-day incidence rate has risen to 94.2.

“It’s a very clear warning sign that whatever we were doing between about the 1 and 7 of December, it’s too much,” said Prof Nolan.

“So that first week of December [there] was too much social mixing and here we are now.

“The emphasis is, we need to stop now in order to protect where we’re going to be seven, 10 days from now.” 


Prof Nolan said last night that Ireland could be seeing up to 1,200 cases a day by the middle of January if things continue.

“The reproduction number is now estimated between 1.1 -1.3,” he said.

“We are concerned that Ireland is now in a phase of rapid growth, which if allowed continue, will result in 700-1,200 cases per day by the second week in January, if not sooner.

“We are particularly concerned about older people and vulnerable adults, who have protected themselves through the second wave, and are now at risk during the festive season.” 

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan also urged people to reduce their contacts.

“We are now getting reports of outbreaks in social settings including workplace settings, Christmas parties and funerals,” he said.

“I cannot stress enough how important it is to limit your interactions now. The consequences of not doing so will be exponential growth in January, a substantial increase in hospitalisations and risk to life.”