Demand for secondary school places expected to keep increasing

By 2024, the Department of Education estimates that there could be almost 40,000 more students in post-primary schools than there is today. Picture: Julien Behal Photography

Demand for secondary school places is expected to keep increasing in the coming years, with the number of school enrolments projected to rise sharply each year until 2024.

The number of student enrolments at second-level, which has increased by 8% in the past five years alone, could increase by a further 10% over the next four years if current trends continue.

By 2024, the Department of Education estimates that there could be almost 40,000 more students in post-primary schools than there is today.

However, after this time, second-level enrolments are predicted to begin decreasing gradually, with numbers falling by 3,000 in 2026 and by 7,500 in 2029.

The details are included in official long-term projections on full-time school enrolment until 2038, published by the Department of Education.

These figures are what the department sees as the most likely outcome from six scenarios it modeled, should migration remain strong here. 

If migration should "soften" in the coming years, secondary school enrolments are still expected to peak in 2024, albeit at a slightly softer increase; from 378,109 in 2020 to 397,580  in 2024, or by 5%. 

According to the report, the latest projections by the department update the previous figures published in 2018, and the regional projects published last year. 

Using migration and fertility rates and projected births, the department forecasts different likely outcomes these factors play on school enrolment. However, given the "enormous uncertainty" around the impact of the ongoing pandemic on migration and fertility patterns, the report will be updated again in 2021, it notes. 

If current trends continue, enrolments could reach a low point of 451,971 by 2034, which would be 115,745 fewer students than today's figure. 

These long-term enrolment projections are fundamental when it comes to the forward planning of teacher demand and supply modelling, as well as the planning for new school buildings. 

School enrolments also impact on planning for third level; By 2026, 69,936 students are expected to sit their Leaving Cert, a 15% increase on the numbers expected to sit their exams next summer. 

Separately, the number of students opting for Transition Year is also expected to keep increasing. 

At primary level, school enrolments are projected to keep falling in the coming years under all scenarios considered by the department, potentially decreasing by as much as a fifth (20%) over the next 14 years. 

If current trends continue, enrolments could reach a low point of 451,971 by 2034, which would be 115,745 fewer students than today's figure. 

In 2026, approximately 11,000 fewer enrolments are forecasted at primary-level, and 10,000 in 2027. 

The report notes that should fertility remain at 2019 levels the low point in primary school enrolments would be reached in 2031 and pupil enrolments would begin to climb again from 2032 onwards.

Meanwhile, a motion regarding Technological Universities is set to be discussed by the Oireachtas education today. As of January, Cork Institute of Technology and Tralee IT are set to merge to become Munster Technological University (MTU) Simon Harris and Niall Collins are due before the committee to discuss.