1,300 cases a day in October if nothing changes, warns Nphet chair

A Covid-19 test centre outside Tullamore, Co Offaly. File picture: Collins

The chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned that the country could see more than 1,000 cases a day in October if nothing changes.

Cases have been rising across the country with Dublin and Donegal placed under level three restrictions due to the rise.

Yesterday, 470 cases were reported and one further death was confirmed.

Dublin had the highest number of cases yesterday with 198, followed by Cork with 61 and Donegal with 36.

Nphet chair Prof Philip Nolan warned that the public “should not ignore or dismiss” the rising numbers of cases.

In a series of tweets, he said: “We know where these numbers will go if we do not suppress transmission of the virus.

“Case numbers have been growing exponentially, at approximately 4% per day, since late June.

 

“The daily average case count on 23 June was 9 cases. If you add 3.9% every day, you get 12 cases on 1 July, 40 cases on 1 August, 131 on 1 Sept, and 430 today.

“Hospitalisations are delayed, but now also growing at about 4% per day. The daily average number of people in hospital with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection on 3 August was 12; increase that number by 4% per day and you get 37 on 1 Sept, and 121 on 1 Oct.” 

Prof Nolan stated that the epidemic “measured in detected cases and hospitalisations, has been growing exponentially, at the same rate, since July.

“We have, collectively, had too many social contacts. The virus is transmitting, and cases and hospitalisations growing.” 

He said that the restrictions in Kildare, Offaly and Laois worked and that those in Dublin and Donegal may be starting to work “but the virus is spreading at a nearly constant rate throughout the rest of the country”.

 

“If nothing changes, and cases and hospitalisations grow as they have been for the last few weeks, we could see 1200-1300 cases per day and 400 people in hospital by the end of October.

“We are seeing people die – mortality with this virus is not negligible and significantly greater than influenza. The only way to protect the vulnerable is to greatly reduce the level of circulating virus in the community.” 

Prof Nolan said the stats are “not meant to scare people” but is “asking us to be honest with ourselves.

“And it’s not inevitable. On the contrary, if we redouble our efforts to minimize our social contacts, keep our distance when with others, and stay home if feeling unwell, we can beat this.”

Speaking last night, acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said the situation nationally “is a matter of serious concern and Nphet”.

He said: “It is vital that everyone - families, friends and neighbours - limit the opportunities this virus has to move from person to person and stop the spread of the disease across households.

“Behave as though you have the virus and keep yourself and those around you safe – don’t take a risk by organising or attending gatherings with more than one other household.”

Yesterday, a record 934 people tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland.