Covid reproduction rate has fallen despite 'very sharp increase' in cases per day

Dr Ronan Glynn: 'It is worth recalling that in late June, the five-day average for cases reported was less than 10.' Picture: Leah Farrell/Rollingnews.ie

Professor Philip Nolan of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) said the average daily case tally has been 75 over the past five days, which he described as a "very significant increase”.

There were 40 new cases confirmed on Wednesday, as well as one death.

Dr Ronan Glynn, the acting chief medical officer,  said although the number is positive relative to last weekend, it remained a concern.

"The five-day average for reported cases nationally is now at 75 per day. Even when we exclude Kildare, Laois, and Offaly from this, it remains significantly elevated for the rest of the country at 31 per day," he said.

"It is worth recalling that in late June, the five-day average for cases reported was less than 10," said Dr Glynn.

He said he was not completely confident the spike in cases in Kildare, Laois, and Offaly had not spread to the community, outside of meat facilities.

Prof Nolan said the reproduction rate — which indicates the average number of people that those infected will pass on — has fallen from 1.8 to 1.6. 

Dr Glynn said it was "virtually inevitable" that there would be outbreaks in schools when classes resume.

"It is virtually inevitable there will be clusters when schools reopen — there is no zero risk so it is likely, unfortunately," he said.

"But we have to balance the risk of infection versus their needs as children to educational attainment."

The outbreaks would be assessed but would not lead to closures necessarily, he said.

"There will not be a blanket approach. It may need to happen that a school closes, but the hope would be that, in the main, it would only be children in close contacts with a case who might have to restrict their movements."

Dr Glynn said he wanted the "bar to be low" when it came to people deciding if their symptoms warranted testing, saying there would be no judgement or chastisement by GPs or health officials if people had contracted the disease in circumstances such as a house party or holiday abroad.

Dr Siobhán Ni Bhriain, consultant psychiatrist and HSE Integrated Care lead, said: “Testing is a vital component of our national response to Covid-19. It enables us to find as many cases as possible and quickly isolate them, which helps prevent further spread. We would appeal to people who are referred for testing as close contacts to attend both tests.”