‘Pace of virus spread’ key to easing lockdown on May 5 - epidemiologists

Managing the reproduction rate of Covid-19, or how many people are infected by someone with the disease, will be key to whether the national lockdown can be eased at the next deadline date of May 5.

Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said that the easing of those restrictions, which have seen the economy grind to a halt and gardaí given draconian powers with which to compel people’s lockdown compliance, will be contingent on the public’s ability to adjust to a new normal of social distancing.

Speaking to RTÉ Radio, Mr Nolan said Ireland’s R0 (the R-naught, a measure of how many people are typically infected by someone living with the illness) will need to drop significantly below one in order for the restrictions to be lifted.

At present that measure stands at “very close to one”, Mr Nolan said.

“Unfortunately if it’s a little bit above one, cases will continue to grow. If it’s lower than one, then cases will decline over time,” he said.

“Right now we seem to be in a very stable situation, it looks like we have control of this disease.

“If we don’t do it very, very carefully (lift restrictions) we will get a second wave of disease very quickly.”

“If it is confirmed in the coming weeks… we have brought that reproduction number below one then it is reasonable to think about changing the behaviours and regulations.”

Mr Nolan said that “there are many things that we can do safely without transmitting the virus”.

“We need, as a society over the coming weeks, to figure out very carefully what things can we get back to doing, in what way that makes it safe so that we don’t spread the virus.

“We need this time to think — how are we going to go about doing these things safely?”

[snippet1]987600[/snippet1]