#Elections2019: Ming set for re-election while Casey surges

Independent MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan is set to be re-elected this morning — but a neck-and-neck race lower down the pecking order last night saw Peter Casey come within a few hundred votes of an upset.

The storylines emerged after an increasingly complex bout of transfer roulette left Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy, Fine Gael’s Maria Walsh, and Mr Casey’s futures in the balance.

With nine counts completed at the time of going to press and two more expected overnight, four-time Fine Gael MEP Mairead McGuinness was still the only candidate guaranteed to return to Brussels for another five years.

Ms McGuinness — whose 134,630 votes was the highest first-preference vote in the country, and 15,644 votes more than the 118,986 election quota — is set to be followed by Mr Flanagan early today, with Mr Carthy and Ms Walsh likely to take the final seats.

This is because by count nine, after 9pm last night, Mr Flanagan was on 91,747 votes, with a flurry of transfers due from Greens candidate Saoirse McHugh, who was on 58,642 votes and is expected to be eliminated on count 12 this morning.

It is expected Mr Carthy (82,921 on count nine) and Ms Walsh (74,116) will ultimately take the two other seats over the next 24 hours, meaning the first three seats will be held by returning MEPs.

However, the final two candidates are unlikely to reach the 118,986 quota.

And with Mr Casey yesterday rising fast on transfers — including from Renua’s Michael O’Dowd, Independent Fidelma Healy Eames, and at 1,224, the most from Solidarity-People Before Profit’s Donegal candidate, Cyril Brennan — there was the potential for the presidential runner-up to get back in the race last night.

This is because Mr Casey was on 61,616 votes by count nine and was expected to receive significant transfers from Ms Eames (20,410) in count 10.

If he was marginally ahead of either Ms Walsh or Fianna Fáil TD Brendan Smith (45,235) after count 11 late last night, when Fianna Fáil TD Anne Rabbitte’s (32,714) was due to be eliminated, he would likely benefit from any of Mr Smith’s surplus.

However, if he has failed to get ahead of either Ms Walsh or Mr Smith, the path will be opened up this morning for both Mr Carthy and Ms Walsh to make it over the line as Mr Smith will be too far back to pose a real threat. In this scenario, the Midlands North West race will ultimately be decided by Ms Eames’ and Ms Rabbitte’s transfers.

As the ninth count was announced at the time of going to press, the candidates were placed as follows:

Mr Flanagan, 91,747;

Mr Carthy, 82,921;

Ms Walsh, 74,116;

Mr Casey, 61,616;

Ms McHugh, 58,642;

Mr Smith, 45,235 (due to benefit most from Ms Rabbitte’s 32,714 in count 11).

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Ms Rabbitte’s surplus was due to be transferred late last night, before Ms McHugh’s this morning.

Speaking to the Irish Examiner, Mr Casey claimed “I am very much in the mix” and described himself as “transfer friendly”.

Mr Flanagan separately told the Press Association: “I’ll definitely get elected. Really the only question here is whether Brendan Smith will get enough votes to get by Peter Casey.”