#Elections2019: Cuffe edges toward landmark Euro victory

Ciarán Cuffe’s was on the verge of a landmark win for the Green Party in the European elections in Dublin last night after topping the poll on the first count.

While he did not make the quota, contrary to the expectations of a Red C exit poll which had predicted the councillor would top the poll with 23% of the vote, he nonetheless performed strongly with 63,849 first preference votes.

Also doing well among the first preference figures announced last night were:

• Frances Fitzgerald (FG) 59,067
• Barry Andrews (FF) 51,420
• Clare Daly (Independents4Change) 42,305;
• Sitting MEP Lynn Boylan (SF) 39,387
• Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) 20,331
• Alex White (Labour) 18,293).

Meanwhile, former SDLP leader Mark Durkan secured 16,473 votes on a Fine Gael ticket, while Alice-Mary Higgins, daughter of President Michael D Higgins, took 10,846 votes.

Parties were told last night before an official count, that there was no surplus after the first count and that none of the 19 candidates on the ballot paper for the four-seater had reached the quota.

While there is a margin of error of four percentage points in the Red C poll for the European elections, other developments have raised questions about it.

The divorce referendum passed by 82% after the exit poll had predicted it would get 87% of support. Support for the Greens in the local elections in Dublin was also overestimated in the poll.

Nonetheless, Mr Cuffe was remaining calm and declined to answer questions about whether, if in government, the Greens would enter a coalition with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

Asked about fellow MEP hopeful Saoirse McHugh’s pledge not to enter government with either of the two parties, Mr Cuffe would only say: “I think she spoke from the heart and I admire that. These are all hypothetical questions. Let’s see how things go today and then we can have a look at these issues.”

Pressed on whether he would support a coalition, he walked away from reporters without answering.

Ms Fitzgerald said there had been changes in voting patterns, especially with some of her voters giving Mr Andrews second or third votes.

She said: “It seems that in European elections the transfers go across the whole wide variety of candidates. It does seem as if the left haven’t done well in these elections and maybe people are voting more centrist. I think that would be a reflection of that if that is the case.

“Climate change is very much on the agenda and I think… people wanted to give a message about climate change and that’s very clear.”

The former minister said she also did not expect there would be a snap general election called in the coming weeks or months.

This was despite party leader and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar earlier refusing to rule out the need to go to the country if the Dáil arithmetic changes and TDs need to be replaced if and when they are elected to Europe.

Former SDLP leader Mark Durkan conceded that he was unlikely to win an MEP seat in Dublin. The Fine Gael candidate was at 5% in the Red C poll.

At the RDS in Dublin, he said: “I don’t regret running, I’ve enjoyed the conversations with people across Dublin, I’ve enjoyed it as an experience.

I’ve enjoyed listening to the arguments and the ideas of other candidates as well. I have huge respect for a range of other candidates.

There is a lot of speculation now about where votes from eliminated candidates will go when they are distributed.

Parties were briefed last night that at least the lowest five candidates would be eliminated.

Others who are in contention for a seat include Independents4Change’s Clare Daly. She is expected to do well on transfers and receive votes across party lines on the ballot papers.

Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan is in a fight for the final seat, according to Red C.

She may not be as transfer-friendly, but she could pick up votes when other left-wing candidates are eliminated early on in the official count.

It is expected that the Dublin constituency count will finish today.