Ireland set to go to the polls

Ireland goes to the polls tomorrow to vote on the European Fiscal Treaty – the only country to give its electorate a say on the controversial charter.

As 3.1 million people prepare to cast their ballots on strict government spending and bailout rules, senior politicians have made last-ditch appeals on both the Yes and No sides.

And the major worry in the pro-treaty camp is that a low turnout could see European reforms rejected by Ireland for the third time in five referendums since 2000.

As opponents lost a last-ditch lawsuit over the role of an independent advisory body, Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore accused them of desperate scaremongering.

Sinn Féin had attempted to secure a retraction from the Referendum Commission over remarks it made about the possibility of Ireland using a veto to block a proposed new bailout fund – the European Stability Mechanism.

But the Tánaiste said the High Court bid was no more than a publicity stunt and an attempt to confuse voters before polling day.

“It was a last desperate attempt by Sinn Féin to cast doubt on the independence of the Referendum Commission, which has been throughout this campaign providing independent information to citizens who want to check assertions that had been made by one side or the other,” Mr Gilmore said.

The ruling was issued by the High Court just three hours before the broadcast moratorium was about to kick in.

Ireland is the only country in Europe holding a referendum on the treaty as it is obliged to put major EU reforms to the public test, according to the Constitution.

And its record is unpredictable, having rejected the last two at the first vote only to accept the EU reforms in a re-run the following years.

The result is widely expected to be known mid-morning on Friday depending on how close it is, before being officially confirmed later in the day.

Counting of ballots starts at 9am on Friday in 43 constituencies with the results fed to the main centre in Dublin Castle.

With polling stations open at 7am tomorrow, Government ministers have been at pains to warn that this time there will be no second vote.

The treaty will come into effect with the support of 12 states, regardless of the Irish stance.

Three recent opinion polls have revealed a 60/40 split in favour of the European fiscal treaty among Irish voters but the No side are always boosted by lower voter turnout and whether the middle class vote can be mobilised is likely to determine the outcome.

Voting has already begun in some islands off the coast of Ireland – in Donegal voters cast ballots on Monday on Tory, Gola, Inishfree, Inishbofin and on Arranmore, which with 43 voters from an electorate of 173 had its lowest turnout ever.

The Mayo islanders polled yesterday while the Aran islanders and others off Connemara vote today and the seven islands of the south-west of Co Cork vote with the rest of the country tomorrow.

A total 25 of the 27 European Union states have accepted the text of the treaty - with the exception of the UK and Czech Republic.

Only 12 of those 25 countries need to ratify the deal for it to be implemented, so even if Ireland rejects the treaty it could still come into force provided enough states support it.

Only three states have ratified the treaty in full – Greece, Portugal and Slovenia – while six others have begun the process including Germany, Poland, Latvia, Romania, Austria and Denmark.

Despite initial support, the deal has encountered some obstacles following a number of political shake-ups across Europe.

Newly-elected French President Francois Hollande took a different stance from his pro-treaty predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy and warned his government would not ratify the deal unless amendments are included on growth.

Details of a new stimulus plan that is to be stitched into the treaty are expected to be formally considered at the next Euro summit in June.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to postpone her country’s ratification of the deal after she was unable to get majority support in the Bundestag.

Meanwhile, Taoiseach Enda Kenny took to the streets of Dublin around Connolly Station to urge early morning commuters into a Yes vote. He has said he is confident but never over-confident before polling.

His deputy Mr Gilmore, the Labour leader, would not call the outcome.

“We are going to continue working right up to the end of polling tomorrow evening, asking every Irish citizen to vote Yes,” Mr Gilmore said.

If passed, the treaty will see stricter budgetary rules imposed on member states and penalties for those that fail to meet them.

The objective of the treaty is also to keep a control on deficits and ensure greater checks and balances are in place for money in and out of each country.

The Yes camp, including Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fáil, has argued that ratification will ensure Ireland has access to emergency funds from Europe should it require a second bailout.