Political horse-trading nothing new for NI parties

The political horse-trading likely to be heralded by a hung Parliament will be nothing new to the North's parties.

The leaderships of each of the main groups have become adept at negotiations thanks to the brokering that has accompanied the peace process for 20 years.

And if unionists or nationalists set a price for propping up a weak government, they are likely to seek political as well as financial concessions.

The Democratic Unionist Party and the nationalist SDLP based their election campaigns on the bargaining power they could have in the event of the Conservatives or Labour failing to win outright majorities.

The two parties hope they will be involved in any permutations being weighed up at Westminster, though observers can rule out the abstentionist Sinn Féin which refuses to take its seats.

But while the SDLP has traditionally received the Labour whip, though has not necessarily been bound by it, and while the Ulster Unionists have allied themselves to the Tories, the DUP has kept its options open.

The failure of the UUP/Conservative pact to win even a single seat in the North comes as a blow to its ambitions. The shock defeat of the DUP leader Peter Robinson in East Belfast has also thrown a shadow over its plans, though the Democratic Unionists will be comforted by the knowledge that they can still bring eight seats to the negotiating table.

The surprise victory by the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long over Mr Robinson means her party, which has links to the Liberal Democrats, might also be in the mix for a coalition arrangement.

The key demand of unionist or nationalist MPs being courted for support is likely to be a call for the block grant from Westminster to the North to be ringfenced from immediate cuts.

The Stormont parties have argued for sensitive treatment for the region they govern, since it is still emerging from 40 years of crippling violence.

After the Conservatives promised £6bn in public sector savings, the Democratic Unionists calculated that this would translate into £200m in cuts for the North.

Gordon Brown wrote to the DUP 48 hours before polling day promising to protect the block grant over the next financial year in what was seen as an early attempt to woo the party’s support.

A further issue likely to find itself on the negotiating table is the disparity between levels of corporation tax in the North and the Republic of Ireland.

The business community has led calls for the 28% rate to be dropped north of the border to match the Republic’s 12.5% rate.

Unionist politicians have fluctuated between backing the demand on economic grounds, while also displaying some political nerves over any move which smacks of economic harmonisation between the two parts of the island. The question of reducing corporation tax was, however, a DUP manifesto commitment.

In addition to seeking financial concessions, the North's parties are also likely to expect political support from a new government.

The parties have only recently concluded a series of major negotiations to stabilise the power-sharing administration, but there are already signs that fresh talks could be sparked by next May’s Assembly election.

Sinn Féin topped the poll in the North for the first time at the last European election and hopes it will be the largest party at Stormont after the spring election.

If it reaches the target, the republican party would be entitled to hold the First Minister’s post.

The Ulster Unionist Party and the DUP are already anxiously eyeing the prospect and there is speculation that despite the political rivalries between the two unionist parties, they will form a united bloc at Stormont to keep Sinn Féin out of the top office.

The scenario would be largely a dispute over symbolism because Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness is already Deputy First Minister, and despite his job’s title, he is the political equal of First Minister Peter Robinson. The pair share the joint office of First Minister and Deputy First Minister.

But if Sinn Féin tops the poll and unionists seek to block its elevation to the First Minister’s desk, republicans may well refuse to participate in the new Assembly, thereby sparking a fresh round of crisis negotiations.

And if a Northern Ireland party has been involved in propping up a Westminster government, it will be expecting some political payback.

It is therefore possible that the formation of a new government, helped by a Northern Ireland party, could have implications for the region’s evolving peace process.