Exit poll suggests tight contest in Assembly election

David Trimble’s Ulster Unionists and the Rev Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionists are running neck-and-neck in a tight Northern Ireland Assembly Election contest, an exit poll claimed today.

The poll, which surfaced two hours before counting for the Assembly’s 108 seats got under way across Northern Ireland, also put Sinn Féin four points ahead of its rival nationalist party, the SDLP.

Out of 1,500 people surveyed after casting their votes, 25% said they had given their first preference votes to the Ulster Unionists or the Democratic Unionists.

Sinn Féin secured 20% support, the SDLP got 16%, the cross community Alliance Party had 5%, the loyalist Progressive Unionist Party was on 2%, the Women’s Coalition and the UK Unionists had 1% support and other candidates secured 4%.

Pundits have expected the election to be nail-biting, with candidates vying for six seats in each of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies.

Polling stations closed last night at 10pm after 15 hours of voting.

Initial indications suggested the turnout was stronger in nationalist constituencies compared with unionist, with some constituencies expected to have voting levels in the low to mid 50s.

Northern Ireland Chief Electoral Officer, Denis Stanley, confirmed the turnout was lower than previous elections in Northern Ireland.

“Turnout seems to be somewhere between 50 to 60%, some of the polling stations a little higher than others,” he said.

Counting is due to get under way at 9am, with the first results expected after midday.

Under Northern Ireland’s complex proportional representation system there is due to be considerable interest in how voters had marked their ballot papers, transferring votes between candidates in order of preference.

Voters were asked yesterday to mark the number one beside the name of their favourite candidate, the figure two at the side of their second favourite, three beside their third and so on.

Later preferences were expected to decide the final seats in most constituencies and ultimately the shape of the next Assembly.

Devolution has been suspended in Northern Ireland since October of last year.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern are due to meet in Cardiff tomorrow and review the results.

Today’s poll was carried out for the RTE by Millward Brown Ulster at 90 polling stations across the 18 constituencies.