Bright start gives way to host of uncertainties

It was all set to go so smoothly, the day had been choreographed, the sequence of events was set down – but as so often in Northern Ireland things tonight didn’t turn out as planned.

Things looked bright, if a little uncertain, until Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble effectively put everything on hold by demanding greater transparency over the IRA’s latest act of decommissioning.

Until that moment there seemed to be three certainties, but still a host of uncertainties as Northern Ireland looked to its political future.

If a deal can be hammered together at the 11th hour this is what will happen:

:: The Ulster Unionist Ruling Council will meet on Wednesday week, October 29, to decide whether to ratify the agreement.

:: Nominations for candidates seeking election to the Assembly will take place on November 3 and 4.

:: The election date is set for November 26 – unusual on two counts, it’s a Wednesday – not the traditional Thursday – and it’s a winter poll.

But winter it has to be. After two postponements waiting to the warmer days of spring was not an option.

Move away from those three certainties and the future is anything but clear.

:: Will the Ulster Unionist Council ratify the deal – will there be a deal for them to ratify?

They’ve backed David Trimble’s advice at over a dozen meetings since he became leader, but his majority over the dissenters has never been overwhelming – will he carry the day again, will he even recommend acceptance of the deal?

:: Divisions within the UUP mean that Mr Trimble will have more opponents within the party elected to Stormont at the next election compared to his last Assembly party team.

:: Will the Assembly even sit and elect a team of ministers – there is a strong feeling that the election is to nothing more, initially, than a round table review of the Good Friday Agreement.

Which political party or parties will be in the ascendancy is a question only polling day will reveal, but could have far reaching consequences for Northern Ireland and the whole political process.

:: In the last Assembly, Ulster Unionists outnumbered the anti-Agreement Democratic Unionist Party and the mainstream SDLP outnumbered Sinn Féin.

:: The DUP has hopes of out-polling the UUP and becoming the major force in unionism – equally Sinn Féin is anxious to overhaul the SDLP for the nationalist vote.

:: Both parties achieving their goal would provide the British government with its “worst case scenario”, given the DUP’s refusal to work in harness with Sinn Féin.

:: If the status quo is maintained David Trimble would return as First Minister and Mark Durkan, leader of the SDLP, as Deputy First Minister.

:: Should Sinn Féin gain more seats than the SDLP it has been speculated Martin McGuinness, Education Minister in the last Executive, would be put forward for the Deputy First Minister post.

:: The DUP in the driving seat of Unionism could see Peter Robinson, the party deputy leader, stepping forward as First Minister, but as the First and Deputy First Ministers come as a package, it would mean a major U-turn in party policy for him to work with Mr McGuinness.

There is one final certainty.

:: Whenever the new Assembly does convene, it will have a new Speaker following the appointment of the last incumbent, Lord Alderdice, to the four man team that will monitor paramilitary ceasefires and adherence to the Good Friday Agreement by all sides.

:: Suggested contenders for the post include Alban Maginness, who will stand for the SDLP in North Belfast, and Alan McFarland, one of the Ulster Unionist candidates in North Down.