Relief in Brussels as Ireland signals 'Yes'

Early signs that Ireland is backing EU enlargement brought sighs of relief at European Commission headquarters in Brussels.

A “Yes” vote clears the last major obstacle to the accession of 10 new member states in 2004.

It also avoids huge embarrassment for the Government.

Despite repeated insistence that there was no “Plan B” in the event of an Irish “No”, the Commission was working on damage limitation measures even as the votes were being cast.

EU foreign ministers were also on stand-by, poised to clear the decks and hold emergency talks tomorrow to hammer out plans for getting the enlargement process back on track.

But the early results from the poll signal that one of the biggest political upsets in EU history has been averted.

It means the contentious Nice Treaty, containing all the necessary reforms to ensure an EU of 25 member states can function without grinding to a halt, can now go ahead as planned.

But under EU rules, any Treaty changes require unanimity: technically, at least, an Irish 'No' would halt enlargement in its tracks, even though the other 14 member states have already given the go-ahead.

For many an Irish 'No' was unthinkable: at best, the enlargement process, reuniting the European continent in the wake of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, would have faced delays while EU experts went back to the drawing board to make enlargement work.

At worst, opponents of enlargement would have seized on the political crisis to fuel dissent and de-rail the plans for years to come.

“We would have lost all the momentum, and in that vacuum, pressure for a re-think would have increased,” said one official early today.

The Nice Treaty has never been popular. It took four days and nights for EU leaders to thrash out ways of streamlining the EU’s decision-making and, both literally and metaphorically, to make room for the newcomers in the EU institutions.

The result is a larger Brussels Commission, a larger European Parliament, and more majority voting when the 15 become 25.

And although the outcome was less than perfect, EU leaders and the Commission insisted that there was no other plan on the table, even if Ireland said 'No'.

But even with an Irish 'Yes' to enlargement, problems still remain over the final, crucial negotiations on the terms of entry of the 10 newcomers.

EU leaders meet in Brussels later this week to give a new push to tough talking on the financial terms of membership, including all-important farm subsidies.

And even if those negotiations go smoothly for the next six weeks, the collapse of the Dutch government – in a row partly about enlargement – could mean that EU leaders will be in no position formally to approve the accession of the 10 newcomers at their summit in Copenhagen in December.

But for now, an Irish 'Yes' is enough to trigger sighs of relief amongst EU diplomats – even amongst the minority who fear that this biggest-ever round of EU expansion is a step too far, too soon.