France's funny figures may lead to real answers

A French secret service estimate that made its way into journalists’ e-mails in Paris last Friday said that Jean-Marie Le Pen could get 41% of the vote in the French presidential election on Sunday.

It was quickly withdrawn and replaced with a figure of 20%. The fact that an organisation normally dedicated to the safe keeping of the state had such figures and found it necessary to leak them is interesting.

The fact they took fright and replaced the figure with a more palatable one is interesting too.

There has been a general reluctance among the media in France to publish opinion polls over the past week.

Perhaps they are afraid of giving Mr Le Pen credence and courage to would be supporters.

Before the first vote on April 21 the media did not even countenance that the leader of the National Front would make it to the second round.

Even though he got a credible 15% of the vote in the pervious presidency elections, there seems to have been something of a conspiracy to largely ignore him.

A combination of a lower turnout than usual, the choice between the very bland two main contenders and the repackaged Mr Le Pen however turned the one-eyed bully into a contender.

There seems to be one other vital ingredient in the success of the former paratrooper. His time has come in that about one in five voters in Europe want comfortable, old certainties.

These desires are the same in all the European countries expressing them in votes. They don’t like immigrants, they don’t like crime, and they don’t like Jews, Arabs, dark skinned people and homosexuals.

In fact they don’t like anybody different to themselves or anybody that disturbs their comfort or wants to share in their wealth.

There seems to be a fear of asking why, in much the same way that opinion polls are being played down or just not being published.

Maybe underlying a lot of this vote for selfish values is the manipulation of the public by the politicians.

After all they have been selling democracy and politics as just another consumable for some time now.

Election promises tend to be based on the wish-list of those groups whose vote politicians need to be elected.

It’s basically dishonest. It allows politicians and voters to pretend there is no price to pay for anything and nobody has to take responsibility.

The best place to view this blatant dishonesty is the European Union. The latest example is from the German chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder who is fighting for his political life against a more right wing party.

He announced yesterday that the move to the right across Europe is because people don’t like the EU and the pace of its development.

It ignores the fact that he and all the other governments have voted for each development and change at every stage.

It also ignores the fact that the governments, meeting as EU councils, are the most secretive of all the institutions.

They hold their meetings behind closed doors and frequently publicly disown their decisions, pretending they were forced on them by something called the EU.

The representatives of the different governments collude in their dishonesty regularly.

This is easily seen at present as sensitive issues in countries where the politicians are facing elections are being carefully ignored.

We saw this in Barcelona in March when the issue of privatising gas and electricity was heavily compromised by the impending French election.

Common Agriculture Policy is another no-go area in light of the differing views of the French and Germans, both facing legislative elections.

Mr Le Pen said recently that there is a dramatic state of insecurity in France and those responsible for it are Jospin and Chirac.

Maybe insecurity comes from being kept in the dark and being told what someone thinks is good

for you to hear.

Maybe the earthquake in France might lead to some real questions and truthful answers.