Adams 'may see United Ireland in his lifetime'

Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams could well see a united Ireland within his lifetime, according to former Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson.

In a magazine column, Mr Mandelson suggested that a prolonged period of political stability, combined with an increase in the size of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland, could prompt a change of sovereignty.

The Hartlepool MP also suggested that prior to any such change Mr Adams, whom, he said, carefully maintained a mask to hide his leadership of the mainstream IRA, might well find a government role in Dublin.

‘‘Adams is 53 years old. Sinn Fein has already overtaken the nationalist SDLP’s votes in the north and, as their popularity spreads in the south, I believe Adams will see government office in the Irish Republic if he chooses to accept it,’’ wrote Mr Mandelson.

‘‘If he grows to old age and population changes as well as enduring political stability are reflected in a referendum outcome in favour of change, he will probably see a united Ireland (although becoming its head of state may be out of his reach).’’

Mr Mandelson said Sinn Fein had prepared the ground carefully for the putting aside of militant republicanism in favour of a greater emphasis on the political tack.

Sinn Fein, he said, was establishing its democratic credentials by standing for elections in Northern Ireland and taking office, and persuading the British Government that it could do business with a reformed republican movement which had turned itself from a military adversary into a negotiation partner.

In addition, it was persuading moderate nationalists and unionists alike that republicans can be trusted through its decommissioning ‘‘gesture.’’

Mr Mandelson added: ‘‘Establishing itself as an electoral force in the south (using the multi-million pound proceeds of its formidable criminal network to finance an unrivalled vote-gathering machine) has added grist to the mill.’’

Mr Mandelson said the IRA had waited for more than a year after taking the decision to decommission some armaments before actually doing so, in order to maximise the public relations impact.

In addition, they wanted to create leverage in negotiations with the British government ‘‘... the move had to appear substantial to justify the concessions offered to reward the historic move,’’ wrote Mr Mandelson.

Those concessions included an amnesty for former IRA members on the run, described by Mr Mandelson as ‘‘logical’’; the dismantling of British security installations, which he described as ‘‘risky’’ given the continued threat posed by the Real IRA; and further inquiries into past British security ‘‘misdeeds’’ - which Mr Mandelson said was ‘‘rubbing salt into wounds’’.

Another concession, he wrote, was further changes to the new police service, on top of those reforms already agreed and intended to make the police acceptable to nationalists and republicans.

‘‘This last set of concessions goes beyond what was originally thought advisable if future police effectiveness is to be assured and, depending on the details, is therefore probably unwise.’’

Nevertheless, Mr Mandelson argued, there was no real alternative to the British Government’s strategy of negotiating with the IRA through its political wing.

It was, he wrote, all a price worth paying if one believed as, he said, most people do, that anything is better than the continuation of a large-scale terrorist war, and that Northern Ireland’s political institutions could contain inevitable tensions and setbacks in the search for peace.