Constituency profile: Dublin-Rathdown

With an aging population and high costs, house prices, taxes, and crime prevention are important issues here. The five-seater was sliced up under boundary changes, leaving three seats.

In 2011, Shane Ross pulled in 23% of votes, while Fine Gael landed the next three seats with Olivia Mitchell, Peter Mathews, and Alan Shatter in that order. Those three won 36% of votes. Fianna Fáil lost the fifth seat to Labour’s Alex White, only the second party TD to win a place here in 12 years. Many say Ms Mitchell would have kept her seat this time around, but she bowed out after almost 20 years as a TD.

The closure of Stepaside Garda Station in 2014 caused concern. Mr Ross has been to the fore in raising crime issues, to the annoyance of Mr Shatter, who was minister for justice when garda resources were cut.

Mr Ross’s position is guaranteed; transfers from the truculent Independent Alliance leader could be important for candidates jockeying for the last two seats.

Fine Gael will take at least one. Can Mr Shatter garner enough support? His running mate, Josepha Madigan, a councillor and solicitor, has made an impact, but will they vote-manage well enough to get two seats?

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If not, the fight for the third will be between Mr White and Fianna Fáil senator and Lir Chocolates founder Mary White. The former’s position has been bolstered by his ministerial profile, but the boundary changes claimed huge chunks of his support. Nonetheless, Dublin South received some of the largest support for Labour in the local elections.

No inroad is expected for Sinn Féin. The conservative constituency might instead support Green deputy leader Catherine Martin, but the teacher is unlikely to get a seat. Much will depend on where Her transfers go. The same could be said for Peter Mathews, as there is no room for two Independents.

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