Household disposable income down 20% since 2008

Average wages fell by less than 8% since 2008, yet disposable income, which governs people’s “living standards”, fell by as much as 20% in the last six years, a trade union economic think-tank claimed.

The Nevin Economic Research Institute said latest CSO figures show a 7.8% fall in average weekly earnings between the end of 2008 and the third-quarter of this year. The institute said when price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was factored in, “the real value of average weekly earnings is down by 11.5% from its real peak in the fourth-quarter of 2009 to the third-quarter of 2014”.

NERI director Tom Healy said an 11.5% drop was not the equivalent of a fall in disposable household income.

“The latest NERI quarterly economic facts indicates a nominal fall of 18% (or 17% in real terms) in average disposable household income between 2008 and 2012. A further fall between 2012 and 2014 is likely pointing towards a real cut of over 20%,” he said.

“The overall picture that begins to emerge is a fall of around 10% in real average wages from a peak in 2009 and a much bigger fall of over 20% in ‘living standards’ as measured by average disposable household income from 2008 to 2014.”

Mr Healy said the decline in household income was related to falling wages, higher taxes, and lower social payments.

He said it was somewhat surprising that real wages fell again in the third-quarter. “One possibility is that workers who stay in employment are seeing modest increases in wages but new entrants to the workforce are starting on much lower wages and this is dragging down the overall average for wages,” he said.

“At the other end of the age-spectrum there is some evidence that older workers are staying on in employment, sometimes as self-employed, and this is helping to increase overall employment totals (but not average wages),” he said on the NERI website.

Yesterday, the Unite trade union expressed concern at what it termed a “tax-cutting auction” being conducted in the media by political parties positioning for a general election.

The union’s regional secretary, Jimmy Kelly, said low-income earners in particular would see little or no improvement in their living standards from either a cut in the top rate of tax or abolition of the universal social charge, but would be disproportionately hit by further cuts in public services and income supports to fund such tax cuts.

“As we slowly emerge from recession, the focus must be on improving living standards for working people rather than on populist tax cuts which will further undermine the public services and income supports on which people depend,” he said.

Unite researcher Michael Taft echoed the NERI findings on people’s living standards.

“The recent ESRI analysis showed that, despite tax cuts of nearly €650m in Budget 2015, most households experienced a fall in income and living standards,” he said.

“This points to a real two-fold problem. First, Irish incomes from work and social protection are well behind our comparable EU neighbours. Secondly, tax cuts can’t address the real problems in living standards such as the high cost of childcare, housing, healthcare, education, and public transport.

“We need social and economic investment to reduce living costs and, so, boost living standards.””