Rise of the margins leaves Europe’s centre weakened
The centre-right European People’s Party, of which Fine Gael is a member, will continue to be the largest single group in the Parliament.
However, it will need to form an alliance with the Socialists to get votes through the Parliament over the next five years.
Meanwhile, the fact that the Parliament was celebrating an increased turnout — just over 43% — for the first time since direction elections began 40 years ago is an indication of the sad state of EU politics.
The numbers voting ranged from 90% in Belgium, where it is compulsory and citizens were also voting in their general election, to 13% in Slovakia, where it was the sole reason for going to the polls.
The EPP was quick to claim victory, although the number of seats it will hold in the Parliament looked like being down.
Its lead candidate, former Luxembourg prime minister Jean Claude Juncker, talked about his “march to victory”.
His supporters expect he will be favourite among EU national leaders to take over the European Commission.
The Socialist lead candidate, Germany’s Martin Schulz, currently Parliament president, was expected to acknowledge this position once all the figures are in.
And while the battle for the one of the most important posts in the EU is under way, the real battle could be just beginning.
The success of Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France in taking a third of the country’s 75 seats in the Parliament will have a profound effect on EU politics.
The far-right success weakens France’s influence in the EU immeasurably and leaves Socialist president François Hollande in a vastly inferior position to German chancellor Angela Merkel.
When EU leaders sit down to dinner in Brussels tomorrow night to discuss the situation, Ms Merkel’s views are likely to go almost unchallenged.
While the Council representing the member states insist they will only discuss what they sees as the broad policy imperatives for the next five years, names will not be far from their minds.
The result leaves the Parliament weakened, as neither of the main political groups are likely to be able to gather enough support for their policies over the next five years.
Their best option will be to form a grand coalition and carve up various posts — Commission, Council, and Eurogroup presidents and the foreign minister — between them, leaving the Parliament to possibly divide the term between the Socialists and the EPP.
Already, leaders are taking positions with Hungary’s EPP prime minister Victor Orban coming out against Mr Juncker. Few believe that Mr Juncker will take on the onerous job in the Commission and it is unclear if he would be interested in the second job in the Council.
The Parliament results, rather than deciding anything or giving more power to the voters in the weekends elections, has probably left the member states in a more powerful position to decide who rules in the EU over the next five years.
For more in depth updates and analysis on the fallout from this year's election and access to our comprehensive results database visit our special Election 2014 section.
