Labour braced for rout as Sinn Féin turn tide

The Labour Party is bracing itself for a weekend of tough questions as counting gets under way for the local and European elections, which are expected to mark a major breakthrough for Sinn Féin and a shift towards anti-austerity candidates.

A backlash against Government parties and a rejection of troika-imposed cuts, including water charges and the property tax, are expected to see an increase in support for left-wing Independents and smaller parties.

Indications to date are that Labour could be left without an MEP on Monday morning, and with significantly reduced representation at local council level.

An analysis of polls during this campaign shows the party would be left with just two Dáil seats if its popularity did not improve before the next general election.

All eyes rest on its Dublin candidate Emer Costello in the hope that a last-minute campaign push will get her over the line and limit the damage to party leader Eamon Gilmore, who faced questions over his leadership before a vote was cast.

Asked yesterday how he will deal with the fallout, Mr Gilmore said: “We’ll see what the results are, with the count, and address that then.”

The party faces a weekend of drawn-out misery as local election results trickle in today, while European results will not be declared until Sunday evening, with the battle for some final seats likely to go into Monday.

While Fine Gael expects a drop in representation at local level, the party is confident it could win four European seats, and its support among middle-class voters and farmers at local level will hold strong enough to contain the damage.

The vote comes after a bruising five months for Taoiseach Enda Kenny and his Coalition, which has stumbled from crisis to crisis. Controversies surrounding the treatment of Garda whistleblowers, policing and the resignation of Alan Shatter as justice minister have been a strong feature for voters during canvasses by representatives of Government parties.

The removal of discretionary medical cards from children with Down syndrome and life-threatening illnesses, as well as from adults with motor neurone and other incurable diseases, has also resulted in angry confrontations with voters.

The progress Fianna Fáil has made since the 2011 general election, when it suffered the worst defeat in history for a sitting government party, will be closely watched. Those close to leader Micheál Martin have been trying to keep expectations down amid speculation that a failure to make progress could instigate challenges to his leadership.

Party sources say the biggest indicator of its revival will not be whether Mary Fitzpatrick can win a European Parliament seat in Dublin, but whether its local election results can lay the groundwork for a raft of fresh new candidates for the next general election.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is poised to take a seat in all three European constituencies in the South and massive local council gains.

Opinion polls have shown the party’s support trebling since 2009. However, it too has been attempting to limit expectations, with sources saying it has “nowhere near” the number of candidates of bigger parties, to capitalise on its support levels.

The number of councillors to be elected has reduced by 40% since the last vote, from 1,572 in 2009 to 950 this year, following the scrapping of 80 town councils. The elections were also to be the last without a statutory gender quota.