Numbers claiming dole falls 7% in year

The numbers of people claiming the dole fell to a seasonally-adjusted total of just under 396,900 last month, the lowest since April 2009. The figure was exactly 30,000 or 7% less than a year earlier when 426,900 people were on the Live Register.

However, on a much less positive note the rate at which long-term claimants — those claiming for more than a year — are coming off the dole is much less rapid. Last month, there were 179,335 people in that position — compared to 187,896 in March 2013. Figures show the percentage of long-term claimants has only fallen by less than 5%.

Nonetheless, Alan McQuaid, economist with Merrion Stockbrokers was upbeat about the latest live register totals, pointing out it was the 21st month decrease in a row and the second time the adjusted total was below 400,000.

While emigration has been a factor in bringing down the numbers on the Live Register over the past year and three quarters, there is clear evidence there is more to it than just that, with employment conditions in the majority of sectors in the economy generally improving in the past few months,” he said.

“The most recent Quarterly National Household Survey showed a year-on-year net increase of 61,000 in employment in the fourth quarter of 2013 after gains of 58,000, 33,800 and 20,500 in the third, second and first quarters respectively. The bulk of the annual rise in the October-December period was in full-time (+54,300) rather than part-time jobs,” he said.

Mr McQuaid said the drop in the numbers signing on meant the unemployment rate fell to 11.8% last month from 12% in January.

“Having hit a crisis high of 15.1% in February 2012, it has since then started to drop steadily, a sign that the labour market is on the road to recovery, though the jobless rate still remains a lot higher than desirable,” he said.

“But, if things continue to improve at the same speed, the unemployment rate could be below 11% come year-end. Although the recovery path for the labour market won’t entirely be smooth, we do think the level of unemployment will continue to fall over 2014.

“It does now appear as though the jobless rate has peaked, and we are looking for it to fall back to 11.5% on average this year from 13.1% in 2013, which itself was the lowest level since 2009,” he said.

Social Protection Minister Joan Burton pointed out that data published by the EU’s statistical agency Eurostat showed that Ireland’s unemployment rate is now in line with the eurozone average, having been up to 40% above the eurozone figure only two years ago.

“While there remains a long way to go and much work to do in tackling the unemployment problem, it demonstrates we are making firm and substantial progress,” she said.