Jobs target is subject to ‘high level of uncertainty’

The Government published its six-year economic strategy which seeks to a return to Celtic Tiger employment with the aid of ambitious economic growth levels — which the document itself admits are subject to a high level of uncertainty.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny said he hoped for a return to full employment by 2020, which could see the country’s current unemployment rate of 12.5% more than halved to below 6%.

“By 2020, we aim to replace all of the 330,000 jobs that were lost during the economic crisis between 2008 and 2011 with new jobs, and in doing so, more than halve the rate of unemployment,” Mr Kenny said.

The central part of the document is its real GDP growth levels forecasts of 2% for next year, 2.3% for 2015, 2.8% for 2016, and over 3% for the rest of the decade.

It recognises these figures are “subject to a high level of uncertainty” because of the national household and public debt and the economic situation abroad.

Mr Kenny described the 66-page document, entitled a Strategy for Growth, as a roadmap for the economy for the years to 2020, saying it will ensure the mistakes of the past were not repeated.

He said it would provide certainty for the Irish people and investors and he pledged the Government would make a strong push to make the economy more competitive, boost employment and help businesses grow.

Mr Kenny dubbed the year 2014 as the “year for jobs” where everything that can be done to accelerate the recovery in the labour market will be done.

He said the year would also see a strong push to make the economy more competitive and welfare reforms would also be focused on in 2014.

“I want to see to it that Government will stay the course, will work very hard, will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure a long-lasting and rich recovery — in jobs for our country and for our people.”

The report recognises the drag debt has on the economy and with the national debt set to hit €206bn by the end of the year, Mr Kenny said he had not ruled out the possibility of retro- recapitalistion of the banks.

However, he said this could not happen until the second half of 2014 when banking union in the EU is achieved and will be examined on a case-by-case basis.

The report predicts the Government will be running a balanced budget in 2018, meaning that will be the first year Government expenditure will not exceed the overall tax intake.

The document lacks detail but it’s understood departmental targets were removed at the request of a number of Cabinet ministers. They will all have to make submissions in the New Year.

Now each Government department will be expected to draw up plans in response to the economic strategy with yearly targets remaining within the set limits.

A number of strategies are planned for next year in construction, the financial services sector, and a white paper on universal health insurance.