Fear of the unknown wins out as relief permeates Dáil

THE people haven’t so much spoken as whispered. In the end, it was the fear of the unknown that won out.

There were no scenes of jubilation from the victors, precious little of even satisfaction.

Relief was the emotion permeating the government parties and Fianna Fáil yesterday.

It’s a dirty job, this business of doing the bidding for the shaky European project, but somebody’s got to do it. And when the result was officially announced at 3.27pm, Ireland had said yes, while most of the rest of Europe was still only saying definitely, maybe. Depending on who’s talking, Ireland has voted to be either a good European or a compliant whipping boy.

The final result reflected pretty much the accuracy of opinion polls over the last fortnight; 60:40 in favour, on foot of a turnout of around half the electorate.

All the indications are that the populace at large remains angry over what has befallen the country. Yet, the result suggests that when push came to shove, sufficient numbers plumped to park their anger in deference to a bigger storm raging beyond these shores.

The turbulence in Greece and Spain must have had an impact on how people voted. When Greece began to fall apart a month ago, some on the no side suggested the spectre of Greek resistance to the European powers would embolden Irish voters. It seems to have had the opposite effect.

Similarly, the scary details emerging from the Spanish banking system in recent days rachetted up fear among the electorate. Now was not the time to be sticking heads above the parapet to express individuality. Just five out of 43 constituencies returned a result in the negative.

For the average yes voter, it was fear of where the next buck will come from when the Government bows to the inevitable second bailout. In rural Ireland, the next buck was uppermost in the minds of the farming community. For the past 40 years, Europe has been good to Irish farmers. Doing anything that might place future transfers in jeopardy was not be to contemplated at this time of living perilously.

Middle Ireland overwhelmingly said yes. Fear was always going to trump anger in this constituency. Some might suggest that this is because the middle classes can better analyse in a dispassionate manner what is best in the long run. The reality though is that austerity has bitten far harder into the working class areas that veered towards a no. One man’s fiscal rectitude is another’s crippling austerity.

The winners and losers in this campaign are not those who won the argument, but those who travelled towards the result wearing the brightest colours.

Yesterday, in the muted count centre in Dublin Castle, Declan Ganley was barely in the door before he became engulfed by reporters. They clung to him like bees to honey. The man is box office. Declan, Declan, where did it all go wrong? “Not enough votes,” he said. He gave of himself to everybody, print, radio, television, the domestic reporters, and the Brits sent over on safari for the day.

And to think that he nearly let the campaign pass him by. He was a late entrant, but when he did shake himself into action, he filled many a dull debate with his robust and articulate strain of whatever it is he’s selling apart from himself.

From mid-morning, word was going out across the airwaves and cyberspace. Declan Ganley concedes. Who is this guy, and on whose behalf was he conceding?

MICHEÁL Martin is another who prospered in the campaign. At a time when he and his party teeter on the edge of oblivion, he may have inched the soldiers of destiny back from the edge. He didn’t do so at Sinn Féin’s expense. Despite the result, the Shinners will have taken great heart from the campaign. It gave the party the perfect opportunity to present themselves as the real opposition.

The likes of Mary Lou McDonald stepped forward to make further forays into the public consciousness, waving an alternative way forward.

Ironically, one of the big losers was the nominal head of the yes side, the Taoiseach. Enda Kenny’s refusal to debate with opponents re-awakened doubts over his capacity to grasp complicated notions. His Tánaiste didn’t emerge with flying colours either. Eamon Gilmore’s party saw its left flank further eroded by Sinn Féin. The campaign did little for the United Left Alliance and those who sail with it. While Sinn Féin appears to accept they need to meet the electorate along the road, to modify their rhetoric, the ULA continue to operate on the basis that the recession will propel the mountain to Mohammed. There’s no sign yet that the strategy is working.

Meanwhile, it’s back to the real world now the referendum is out of the way. Expect plenty of stored-up bad news to begin seeping out of the Government. Batten down the hatches. That little distraction has been put to bed. There’s no sign yet of the storm abating.