UL expert devises technique to predict spread of disease

AN academic at the University of Limerick has come up with a new technique to predict changes in situations ranging from epidemics to future topics of gossip.

Professor James Gleeson’s new mathematical technique analyses and predicts the outcome of major changes in a diverse range of spreading phenomena such as epidemics, computer viruses and social media trends.

A paper by him entitled High-accuracy approximation of binary-state dynamics on networks has just been published by leading science journal, Physical Review Letters.

Professor Gleeson said: “The application of this model can be applied to examine the spread of diseases such swine flu, by understanding the complex networks within society.

“The airline network, for example, tells us how many people fly to and from each airport in the world every day, and these travellers are often the primary spreaders of epidemics and pandemics.”

As an applied mathematician, he said phenomena, like diseases or rumours on social networks, can have a mathematical description.

He said: “One of the most significant results of this technique will be its application in global healthcare. This research will enable scientists in many different fields to obtain more accurate predictions for spreading behaviours, in particular epidemics. Better understanding how diseases spread can inform how vaccination should be rolled out and targeted at specific groups, and so guide the response required by governments and healthcare.”

Prediction of the spread of epidemics, he said, has implications for the wider healthcare community and its ability to respond effectively.

Professor Gleeson is the co-director of the Mathematics Applications Consortium for Science and Industry (MACSI) at the University of Limerick.

This research is funded by Science Foundation Ireland. Professor Gleeson’s paper is available to view on Physical Review Letters: http://prl.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v107/i6/e068701