Analysis: Croke Park review has all hallmarks of a slasher sequel — and the same outcome

THE Croke Park review reeked of all the worst aspects of the public sector the initial deal was supposed to transform.

It had a little bit of something for everyone, and satisfaction for no-one — all set against the backdrop of veiled threats and false realities.

The body charged with assessing the patchwork crisis-management deal thrown together a year ago patted the public workers on the head, concluding that “solid, measurable” progress had been made, but then insisted on “urgency and acceleration” in more far-reaching changes to working practices.

The vilification of the public services in some areas is so intense that warnings from the government of yet more job losses and pay cuts on the way provoked little reaction.

And while the stereotype of the bloated civil servant package and holiday-happy HSE executive may have some foundation in truth, it is the likes of the cancer nurses and schoolteachers who will bear the brunt of yet another raid on meagre wages.

However, the call by the CPSU union for a restoration of past pay cuts was delusional at best.

And while Public Sector Reform Minister Brendan Howlin was quick to claim the threat of further pay cuts was “bottom of the Government’s agenda”, he knew it would be top of the news agenda as he tossed the verbal hand grenade into the debate.

Pay is a very sensitive sore for the Labour Party as Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore deals with a growing storm over the determination of Fine Gael Enterprise Minister Richard Bruton to push through “reforms” — cuts in anyone’s language — to the wage-setting mechanism for the low paid in private sector areas like hospitality.

The scale of backbench anger on the issue has taken Mr Gilmore by surprise and is likely to see him forced into asking Mr Bruton to address the next gathering of Labour TDs.

A number of hardcore rebels are insistent the plans must be scrapped, while other Labour TDs are angry at Mr Bruton’s lack of emotional intelligence, which they fear is squandering a great deal of good will between the coalition partners on a subject that could have been avoided if Fine Gael had shown a little more sensitivity and policy cop-on.

And while that row intensifies, Mr Howlin, who in the strange post-election disappearance from the political stage by the Tánaiste, is now seen as the driving force behind Labour economic policy, could hardly have been more blunt in his warnings to public sector unions.

“If we don’t get the savings voluntarily, then we have to resort again to pay cuts,” he said.

“In view of the severe fiscal constraints we face, the reality is that further significant cuts in expenditure, coupled with further substantial reductions in the numbers employed in the public service, are unavoidable.”

And while the Croke Park deal has delivered savings of over €600 million, that’s small beer to the EU/IMF masters who now dictate our fiscal fate.

The Health Service bore the brunt of the Croke Park cuts, with €238m saved by a 4,180 cut in staff numbers — yet, amazingly, the review insisted that patient care has not suffered.

A further €308m was saved in non-pay areas such as property management, and another €85.7m in general costs initially avoided by the deal.

Mr Howlin claimed the continuing pain was necessary in order to try and get the books somewhere near balancing by 2015 so that we can claw back some kind of control over our own economy and our fiscal decision-making.

And while that is the public mantra, in private very few people in Government believe that is an achievable goal, given the timeline and scale of the financial crisis still unfolding.

The IMF in particular is keeping a very close eye on the public sector reform deal and its survival is highly questionable. Not for the first time, a Croke Park clash may yet have a very ugly finish.