Jobless figures show human face of austerity as Coalition’s options limited

IF austerity is working, it’s not reflected in the jobless figures.

It was July 2008 when the then Fianna Fáil-Green government woke up to the fact that a serious economic crisis was looming and announced the first wave of cutbacks.

That same month, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.3%.

That was already a significant increase from the start of 2008, when the rate stood at 4.8%. But things were to get steadily worse, as the global recession struck and the domestic banking crisis exploded.

Faced with a massive bill for the banks, and a large gap between state income and expenditure, the Fianna Fáil-led government engaged in further cutbacks.

Confidence evaporated, and with the economy continuing to shrink, the numbers on the Live Register continued to grow.

By May of 2009, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate had risen to 11.6%. But still it got worse, reaching 13.2% by May of 2010. Now, the latest Central Statistics Office figures show the figure at 14.8% as of last month.

The CSO is always careful to point out that the Live Register is not a true measure of unemployment, as it includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers entitled to some benefits.

But the Live Register does firmly spell out the human cost of the economic crisis — 443,400 people signing on the dole. And it’s set to get worse, with the seasonally adjusted rate looking certain to break 15% before the year is out.

Fine Gael and Labour promised during the election to get Ireland working. With the Coalition less than 100 days in office, it’s far too early to judge whether they are capable of meeting those promises.

But the early signs are not very promising.

Ahead of last month’s jobs initiative, the Government first talked it up only to then talk it down when realising it would be merely a small step to combat a huge problem.

In the end, the Government could not even manage a convincing estimate as to how many jobs the €500m initiative could create.

“Six thousand, or something like that,” Finance Minister Michael Noonan said.

Since taking office, the harsh reality has dawned on this administration that there is simply no money in the coffers and, locked into an EU/IMF bailout, there is a corresponding lack of room to manoeuvre.

It’s debatable, for instance, whether we will ever see the €7bn infrastructural investment programme to create 100,000 new jobs that was promised by Fine Gael during the election.

The Government will dispute it publicly, but it really does seem now that all it can do is meet the terms of the bailout, continue with the austerity measures, and hope that the economy picks up at a greater speed than anticipated. Only a wider recovery will bring the unemployment rate down by any significant percentage.

But with austerity and bank bailouts the name of the game for the duration of the bailout agreement, the wider recovery may be depressingly far off.