Independents’ Day?

“WHO are these people?”

Although their chances are better than ever before, that one simple question, posed by a blogger on the popular Politics.ie website, encapsulates the difficulties first-time independents face in their bid to capture the public mood.

The number of independents running in this election has risen dramatically from 90 in 2007 up to 202 (this figure also includes supporters of parties not officially registered), but it remains to be seen whether they can capitalise in a meaningful way.

The time is ripe for a new departure in Irish politics, and this is reflected in the new breed of independents running. They are not the typical left-leaning or one agenda politicians — they are business people, economists and market analysts, many of whom are firmly on the right.

But if independents don’t have the baggage of a party, neither do they have the support of a political machine whose job it is to help them get a seat in Dáil Eireann.

Independent Dublin North East candidate and MBA graduate Eamon Blaney maintains that the system is stacked against independents from the word go.

“People don’t realise just how difficult it is for an independent to get elected. Everyone is talking about the need for a new political landscape but now we are here, they are saying — who are you? Political parties are funded from the exchequer, and can run huge campaigns, and don’t have to work while doing it.

“I am currently unemployed and have had to sign off the dole. If you are an independent submitting papers, you cannot put a picture or a logo on the paper if you are not part of a party.”

It costs€500 for nomination papers, then you have to pay for posters, all of that — and you are up against someone who is being funded by a political party.”

Mr Blaney is part of a new “grouping” of independents called New Vision, which so far has 19 candidates under its umbrella. The alliance will vote as one on four key issues, including the separation of bank sovereign debt and the overhaul of the political, public and civil service. If seven or more of them are elected they will have speaking rights in the Dáil.

New Vision ranges from seasoned independent Luke Ming Flanagan in Roscommon-South Leitrim, David McCarthy in Cork who ran campaigns for Kathy Sinnott and Sean Kelly, and John McGuirk in Cavan-Monaghan who ran Declan Ganley’s 2009 European Election campaign.

Another with a good chance of taking a seat is well-heeled disability campaigner and Galway West candidate Eamon Walsh. Mr Walsh led protests against the disability cutbacks in July last year and has grassroots experience and support.

Political analyst Dr Elaine Byrne maintains, more than ever before, there is a chance independents can make a mark.

“It remains to be seen, but there are quite an impressive bunch of them out there,” said Dr Byrne. “Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have some new faces from within their own ranks, but the independents are very much first time novice politicians.

“From talking to canvassers it seems there is volatility there. The polls suggest there is support for them and that a lot of people still have not made their minds up. They have difficulties though, not least their finances in compared to the parties.”

According to Dr Byrne, however, people too are looking for reassurance and this could translate into a conservative vote.

“Micheál Martin is putting in an incredible performance and people might revert to what they know.

During the Icelandic crisis they got rid of the governing party and brought in a new one, but now support is growing for the old party again.”

Whether Fianna Fáil can pull off such a turn around so soon is highly questionable, and independents are moving to align themselves to try and give themselves extra credibility.

But with the demise and disappointment of Fintan O’Toole’s much-vaunted Democracy fresh in people’s minds it may prove difficult to sell this idea again.

According to Cork’s David McCarthy, who previously formed an alliance with about six others but has since amalgamated with New Vision, it’s about putting forward a strong coherent strategy.

“There is an opportunity for independent candidates not tied to a party legacy to enter the system and affect meaningful change. If we can show ourselves to be a credible alternative then we will tip the balance in the next Dáil.”

Indeed, with the public consistently showing their support for independents — it rose up to as high as 15% in recent polls — it makes sense for independents to try and show electorate they can offer a somewhat co-ordinated voice.

Another view that independents cannot really affect change, as Dr Byrne points out, is a fallacy.

“Those who have watched the likes of Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae will see that they can hold power. Everyone is assuming we are going to have a Fine Gael/Labour government but there is also the chance of a minority FG government. That could be relying on independents making influence quite significant.”

HOLDING THE BALANCE OF POWER

SEVEN independent TDs is all it takes to form a “technical group” with speaking rights in the Dáil, while 20 could hold the balance of power.

A technical group is where a group of TDs and senators from different political positions come together to share speaking time. If there are seven members they are entitled to Leaders Questions, Priority Questions and powers to bring forward legislation. It is not usually seen as an alliance on policy matters but a technical arrangement for speaking time.