Young voters set to buck the trend and vote Labour
Independents, the Green Party and other small parties also have significantly more pull with under-35s than with the electorate as a whole, with Fianna Fáil’s decline in popularity even more pronounced among the young.
The findings come from an Irish Examiner-Red C poll of 18 to 34-year-olds carried out during the week ending last Tuesday, which questioned a broad section of under-35s on their voting intentions, interest in politics and the impact of the economic situation on their lives.
Some of the results turn recent polls on their head. Young voters intend giving their preferences equally to Fine Gael and Labour — 25% voting for each party — which is 5% more than general polls indicate will vote Labour and 13% less than has been indicated will back Fine Gael.
Party leader popularity ratings follow a similar pattern with Labour’s Eamonn Gilmore enjoying a 12% lead on Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny among younger voters, compared to just a 7% lead among the electorate as a whole.
Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin, with popularity ratings at 11% and 22% respectively, are less popular with younger voters than with the general electorate which rated them at 15% and 31%. Independents, meanwhile, enjoy a 23% rating with the under-35s compared to just 14% nationally.
Sinn Féin’s popularity is more evenly spread with 11% of younger voters giving the party their first preference compared to 10% of the electorate as a whole, while Gerry Adams was the most trusted party leader for 9% of younger voters compared to 7% of the public at large.
The findings could prove significant for all parties and candidates if they are borne out at the ballot box as the last census showed there were almost 1.2 million people in the 18-34 age bracket and this poll shows 79% of them definitely intend voting next Friday. A further 10% are undecided — higher than the average national turnouts of 67% and 63% in the last two general elections.
Prospects for Fine Gael achieving single-party government hold little appeal for younger voters, 42% of whom want a coalition between Labour and Fine Gael and 20% of whom would favour an all-party national government.
A coalition featuring Sinn Féin would be the preference of 13% while 11% would like to see Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael join forces.
The poll showed a grim mood among younger voters with job prospects their major concern.
Some 22% in this age group are unemployed compared to 14% for the workforce as a whole and less than a quarter (23%) of the unemployed and those still in education believed they had a reasonable chance of getting a job in Ireland.
Of the full group, including those currently in jobs, more than half (55%) had considered emigrating in the past year and almost two-thirds (63%) had a family member or friend forced to emigrate in the same period.
