Sinn Féin poised for first seat in Cork constituency
An Irish Examiner-Red C poll reveals that Sinn Féin councillor Jonathan O’Brien will take the third seat in the constituency after unsuccessful efforts in the 2002 and 2007 general elections.
Labour and Fine Gael will take the first and second seats respectively.
But Fianna Fáil TD Mr Kelleher will be left scrapping it out for the fourth and final seat, and is in danger of failing to win re-election.
Labour will dominate the constituency by taking one in every three votes, with popular sitting TD Kathleen Lynch topping the poll.
Fine Gael will retain the seat long held by retiring TD Bernard Allen, with former Lord Mayor of Cork Dara Murphy replacing him.
But the party’s second candidate, Cllr Pat Burton, is set to miss out, although his transfers will help Mr Murphy.
Labour has much work to do in terms of vote management if it is to get its second candidate, Cllr John Gilroy, elected.
The poll indicates that Ms Lynch’s surplus votes will transfer mainly to Sinn Féin’s Mr O’Brien, rather than Mr Gilroy. Mr O’Brien is set to soak up approximately half of Ms Lynch’s transfers, compared to approximately one-third for Mr Gilroy.
As a result, Mr Gilroy will be fighting it out with Fianna Fáil’s Mr Kelleher for the final seat.
While the poll indicates Mr Kelleher may just squeeze a victory, it’s only by the narrowest of margins, meaning the contest for the final seat is effectively too close to call.
Fianna Fáil’s Mr Kelleher, who topped the poll in the last election, has seen his vote drop from 22% to 15%, leaving him with a major challenge to keep his seat.
Elsewhere, the poll shows a strong showing by Socialist Party councillor Mick Barry. While he will fail to win election, he will send crucial transfers to Sinn Féin’s Mr O’Brien — signifying the strong protest vote in Cork North Central.
The telephone poll was conducted between February 9 and February 11.
