Local issues the top factor for voters’ first preferences

THE economy and jobs are by far the biggest issues influencing how voters in Cork North Central will cast their ballot, but candidates’ work on local issues is the single biggest factor in who they will choose to give their first preference.

The Irish Examiner/RedC poll in the constituency found that 28% of those surveyed based their No 1 vote on local issues on which the candidate has taken a stance, higher than the appeal of the individual (22%), party (18%) or policy (17%) preferences, and with just 7% choosing a candidate based on their preference for his or her party leader.

But this ranged from 2% and 4% respectively for Fine Gael’s Pat Burton and Dara Murphy, to a very high 20% of Billy Kelleher’s backers, showing that Micheál Martin’s profile is key to the former junior minister’s hopes of clinging on to his Dáil seat.

On the issues influencing their vote, 58% of those polled chose the economy and jobs as most important.

Although significantly lower as a main priority, health services and hospitals are the next biggest issue for 8%, and were referenced as one of the influential issues for almost one-third. This is proportionally much higher than for voters questioned for the Irish Examiner/RedC polls of Cork South Central and Kerry South published earlier this week.

This may reflect the higher number of medical card holders in some urban parts of the constituency than south of the Lee. But it also suggests that the HSE’s announcement last year to move orthopaedic services out of St Mary’s Orthopaedic Hospital in Gurranabraher is a concern on the northside.

The strong 11% first preference vote of Socialist Party councillor Mick Barry could well be down to his high profile campaigning on this and other public service withdrawal issues. However, Fine Gael councillor and ex-lord mayor Dara Murphy’s pronouncement last week that his party in government would review the decision could also help his share of the votes next Friday.

While Kelleher depends strongly for votes on his party leader, he also gets one-fifth of his votes for his stance on local issues. However, fellow Glanmire candidate John Gilroy boasts half his first preferences from those influenced by his local activism.

Jonathan O’Brien gets more than one-third of his votes based on local issues performance, while Dara Murphy’s profile as Cork city’s first citizen may be a factor in one-fifth of his votes being down to personal appeal, a bigger factor for him than any of six candidates whose supporters were asked their reason for how they allocated their number 1s.

The question of taxes may influence the decisions of almost one-in-five Cork North Central voters and nearly one-in-seven mentioned cost of living as an issue, twice the numbers who mentioned it in the South Central poll. Education and schools, roads and crime are the big issue for 2% to 4% of voters, with house prices, housing lists, emigration, immigration and childcare among the lesser-mentioned concerns.