Leaders clock up the miles as routes reveal strategies

CAMPAIGN journeys made by the main political leaders have started to say a lot about the where they believe votes can be won or lost.

An obvious split has developed in the amount of attention paid to Dublin city and the 47 seats it will provide in the next Dáil.

In particular, Labour’s Eamon Gilmore has concentrated his efforts in the capital. This has been rewarded with two recent polls which put his party on course to harvest the most seats from its 12 constituencies.

In contrast, Micheál Martin has clocked the most kilometres in rural areas to rally supporters charged with salvaging seats in erstwhile, but vulnerable, Fianna Fáil strongholds.

All the while, race leader Enda Kenny has spread himself widely across the country with a frantic schedule. He has maximised the amount of stops he makes in an effort to eke out extra percentage points where Fine Gael could pick up seats.

The leaders’ tours do not win elections but the mammoth task of campaigning in 43 constituencies in 24 days requires parties to choose where to best apply resources.

In terms of concentrating media attention on the constituencies, the leaders’ itineraries boost the profile of the candidates they visit and deliver niche regional policy to local media.

Mr Gilmore’s itinerary in the first half of the campaign has been the most striking. Until yesterday’s trip to Galway, for today’s TG4 debate, his 2,017km journey has involved seven days in which he stayed inside Co Dublin.

On three more he nudged outside to the neighbouring counties of Wicklow, Kildare, Louth and Meath.

His two significant journeys beyond the Pale have plotted a course through the homes of three Leviathan personalities in the party.

The longest forays were to Limerick and Kerry, where the legacies of Jim Kemmy and Dick Spring loom large.

Last Friday, he travelled to Mullingar, where Willie Penrose has dominated.

In Dublin, he has traversed the Liffey. And the latest Millward Brown Lansdowne poll of 1,030 Dubliners has rewarded him with 31% of decided voters.

A separate, weekend, Red C survey said Labour can expect to reap 29% of the first preference votes.

Results from 2007 show that it was also the most transfer-friendly party in the capital, picking up large chunks from Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and independent candidates.

The party’s director of elections, Ruairi Quinn, said his leader has visited 28 constituencies since the beginning of the year. This has included trips up the western seaboard. It has sent out more than one candidate in 23 constituencies.

However, once the starting gun went on February 1, Mr Gilmore has retreated into the party’s stronghold to shore up its base.

Yet the room for improvement, in terms of its seat count, is poor.

In 1992, it surged in Dublin.

But its haul of 12 Dublin-based seats was still low. Considering it got more than 28% first preferences in five constituencies, the party only secured two seats in a couple.

With better vote management the predicted 31% in Dublin should offer a bigger tally.

However, in terms of crude mathematics, 31% of Dublin’s 47 seats would only yield 15 TDs in the next Dáil. It would leave a lot of ground to be made up across the country.

And an average of 31% does not guarantee consistently high figures in all parts of the city. In 2007, its Dublin vote varied from 7% in Dublin North to 20% in Dublin North West.

The new leader of Fianna Fáil has been running a very different campaign, which has seen him tot up much more mileage than his challengers. While he has returned to Dublin or Cork every night he has spent just three days in the capital city’s constituencies, despite kicking off his journey in Tallaght.

Yesterday’s poll put Fianna Fáil on course to fall below Sinn Féin in Dublin with just 10% of decided voters.

In contrast, separate polls earlier in the campaign showed the party can still reach the 20% threshold in Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo and Limerick — all constituencies where Mr Martin has visited since February 1.

He has spent a lot of time in the south of the country, and would have amassed another 400km with a canvass in Wexford, Tipperary and Waterford but for the Cork plane crash suspending his campaign for the day.

Throughout, Mr Martin has adopted a more focused approach. He has travelled more to spend longer in constituencies and less time at public events.

His strategy has been to speak directly to Fianna Fáil’s grassroots organisation.

This means his route around the country has looked very different to his rival, Enda Kenny.

THE Fine Gael leaders’ itineraries in Leinster and Connaught/Ulster have been relentless. For example, en route to Offaly he zig-zagged to various stops in Dublin mid-west, Leixlip, Maynooth, Naas, Newbridge, and Tullamore.

The agenda has allowed him split his time between the cities and the county towns, with Dublin canvasses and rural events scheduled for the same days.

This, and a journey which has spun a web around the country, has spread him thinly but his organisers said it has allowed him to speak directly to more people.

“A critical part of any campaign is spending real time with people, and Enda Kenny places great value in that. People are fearful right now and are seeking stability. Enda Kenny is taking every opportunity to engage with them on their own terms,” Fine Gael said.

The decision to spend more time in these areas was supported by the Red C poll where his party tips above 40%, the territory for single party government.

The geographical strategies will be honed, redirected and varied in the final week.

But so far the men seem intent on travelling very different routes to reach the finish line in first place.