Outcome depends on how veterans’ votes fall

THE unexpected retirement of two of Cork North Central’s political heavyweights has added a frisson of sorts to the campaigns of those seeking a seat in the 31st Dáil.

Deputy Bernard Allen bowed out at the end of last month after 31 years representing the constituency while North Central’s most outspoken TD, Noel O’Flynn, whom many had thought might go independent, also announced he would be leaving national politics.

In Bernard Allen’s case, the 61-year-old made the decision on health grounds. In Noel O’Flynn’s case, the writing was on the wall. With Fianna Fáil on 15% nationally and O’Flynn not even making the quota last time around, his running ran the risk of the shrunken Fianna Fáil vote being split and the likelihood that neither would be returned to the Dáil.

The big question in Cork North Central (which was reduced from a five seater to a four seater in 2007) is where the Allen and O’Flynn votes will go. Both are believed to have gathered a strong personal vote over the years, aside from their core party vote.

Another factor to watch is the Gerry Kelly vote. Kelly, a Fine Gael county councillor, polled very well in the last election (picking up 4,808 votes) and isn’t running this time around.

Will the Kelly vote go to Fine Gael’s Pat Burton or Dara Murphy? Or will they be picked up by candidates of other colours based at the Glanmire end of the constituency, Billy Kelleher in rural Whitechurch, north of Glanmire village or John Gilroy who is in Glanmire village itself? Kelly himself was based in Knockraha, east of Glanmire village.

There’s a widespread belief that there is a definite Fine Gael and Labour seat in Cork North Central.

It’s looking increasingly likely that Kathleen Lynch of Labour will hold on to her seat, and will probably get a boost in her vote from former O’Flynn and Allen voters in the city.

However, will her expanded vote ensure party running mate John Gilroy gets a leg up?

It’s also not certain which of the Fine Gaelers will take the supposed pre-ordained FG seat. Fine Gael headquarters decided after some mulling to not run a third candidate after Allen’s exit. Instead they have split the constituency down the middle with Burton canvassing the west and Murphy the east.

Pat Burton wowed those at Fine Gael’s Cork North Central convention when he pulled in more votes than 66-year-old Allen. He has a large campaign team working behind him and is said to have the rural part of the constituency from, Cloghroe itself and west of Cloghroe, pretty much in the bag.

For his part, Dara Murphy — fresh from his high profile mayoral term in 2009-2010 — is emphasising his links to Glanmire. He’ll have a fight on his hands there though as John Gilroy has done trojan groundwork there.

Murphy is based in Gardiner’s Hill and he will have to secure that eastern city vote around Montenotte and Mayfield as well as making serious inroads into Gilroy territory. However, many observers are saying the battle of Cork North Central 2011 will be not be fought in the city but in the county.

The constituency of Cork North Central is divided 50:50 between rural and urban after it was redrawn after the last election, taking in more rural areas such as Watergrasshill and sections of Mallow.

Last week, Fine Gael’s canvassing team was focussing on Ballyvolane, Blarney and Killeens trying to woo over O’Flynn voters and also a Gerry Kelly vote.

While Fianna Fáil is being savaged in opinion polls, it would be foolish to write off Billy Kelleher’s chance of taking a seat, especially seeing as O’Flynn has left the field.

Kelleher was elected on the first count last time around with the rest of the TDs not elected until the seventh count at the earliest. He won 9,456 votes in 2007 or 22% of the vote.

A leaked Fine Gael headquarters poll also put Kelleher on 15% of the vote, neck and neck with Burton, three weeks ago and behind Lynch on 20%. The number one issue in Cork North Central this year though is jobs. Fianna Fáil will be crucified on this while Labour and Fine Gael will be begging for people to give them their chance to right the country’s wrongs.

There is a strong showing of left candidates including Sinn Féin’s Jonathan O’Brien and the Socialist Party’s Mick Barry. Barry has had a high profile in the City Council since he was first elected singling himself out on issues such as bin charges and the over 70s medical card.

However, Jonathan O’Brien, who is widely respected across the northside and who secured twice Barry’s votes in the last general election is very aware that this could be his moment. He is canvassing hard to pick up as much of the traditional Noel O’Flynn vote from around Shandon Street and Blackpool. Sinn Féin is hoping it will pick up the older more republican Fianna Fáil vote from the rural areas.

All the smaller left wing candidates are likely to do well in the city — especially in light of the current levels of dissatisfaction with the status quo.

In 2007 Jonathan O’Brien polled 8.2% of the first preference, up just 2% from 2002. He’ll be hoping to do well in transfers from other candidates such as Ted Tynan, Barry and Adams.