Close allies and bitter rivals

FINE GAEL and the Labour Party have not convinced people about their economic policies, but there remains little doubt among voters that they can work together to form a stable government.

There is a consistent view that the two opposition parties, who have had differing stances on various policy issues, would form a stable coalition.

Those eligible to vote and who are under the age of 25 were the strongest believers in the proposition, ahead of pensioners who would have lived through a number of such coalitions.

While the electorate emphatically rejected the two parties’ proposals for a coalition in advance of the 2007 election — the so-called Mullingar Accord — voters seem more willing to trust the pair in 2011.

The poll revealed that 43% believed the pair would produce a secure executive. This is sizeable given 30% of those polled were neutral to the idea or did not know.

Seventeen per cent of people strongly disagreed with the proposal that the main parties in the former Rainbow Coalition would be good together. However, this must be pegged against a range of other opinion polls which place the diehard Fianna Fáil base at between 16% and 25%.

Fine Gael and the Labour Party are in the unwelcome situation of being each other’s closest allies and fiercest rivals for control of the next Dáil.

If the Labour Party is to make the inroads its poll ratings suggest are possible, it will need to make the breakthrough in many rural constituencies.

It will not be good enough to target vulnerable Fianna Fáil backbenchers. It must stop Fine Gael attracting the angry protest vote. And the age profile of angry voters revealed in this poll suggests they are more likely to be in Fine Gael’s target market.

However, neither party can risk attacking the other overtly, because it risks exposing problems which would play into Fianna Fáil’s campaign.

The parties must also work together in the Dáil in a bid to maintain pressure on the Coalition in its final days in office.

The two opposition groups have already taken different paths on the rescue of the banks. Labour initially blocked the guarantee of September 2008 and favoured temporary full nationalisation. These are technical differences which will pale beside the tangible public attitude to Fianna Fáil’s banking policies.

However, the biggest difference is in the prospective partners’ attitude is their stance on the Four Year Plan. The Labour Party does not support the front-loading of the pain, it believes €15 billion worth of cuts is unnecessary and feels that growth will return faster than the Government has predicted.

In contrast, Fine Gael has accepted the €15bn target and the €6bn target for 2011.

This poll suggests the public believe the problems will not block the brokering of a post-election deal.

PUBLIC PAY DEAL SLATED

CLAIMS that the Croke Park deal will still be in place to protect public service workers has been dismissed by the vast majority of people.They believe whoever forms the next government will have to tell those employed by the state that their pay will be cut again.

The Irish Examiner/Millward Brown Lansdowne national opinion poll showed 81% of those surveyed thought the notion of the partnership deal maintaining jobs and was unrealistic.

Just 13% felt it was liable to remain intact for the lifetime of the Four Year Plan, which was unveiled in the midst of polling last week.

The dismissive attitude towards the deal was strongest among richer people where just under nine out of 10 reckoned the agreement would have to be revisited.