Election to clash with key budget plans

THE Government has been forced into holding a by-election it doesn’t want in the middle of finalising the most important budget in the history of the state.

Following an emergency Cabinet discussion on the issue last night, Government chief whip John Curran confirmed the writ for the Donegal South-West by-election would be moved in the Dáil today.

The by-election will have to be held within 18 to 25 days of the writ being moved, with Mr Curran saying the vote would take place by the end of November.

The timing could not be worse for the Government as it will by then be immersed in final preparations for the December 7 budget.

Mr Curran admitted ministers’ ability to travel to Donegal to campaign would be affected by the budget preparations.

The Cabinet also signed off last night on the total amount of spending cuts and tax hikes that will be imposed in the budget.

Coalition sources indicated the overall adjustment would be between €5.7 billion and €6bn.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will brief the opposition parties on the issue today and release the adjustment figure, as well as detailed growth projections for the next four years.

But the Government is facing the nightmare scenario of seeing its already minuscule majority sliced even thinner before the crucial budget vote.

No Government has won a by-election since 1982, and the coalition will enter the Donegal vote with its support levels on the floor.

Should it lose the by-election, its majority will be reduced to just two — meaning it would be dependent on Independent TDs Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae to get the budget passed.

The sense of the coalition unravelling was heightened when it lost a vote in the Seanad.

That compounded an already dark day which had seen ugly scenes around Government Buildings and Leinster House when a student demonstration over plans to hike registration fees descended into violence.

Gardaí in riot gear forcibly ejected around 50 protesters who had occupied the lobby of the Department of Finance, and missiles, bottles and sticks were later thrown at officers as the clashes continued on the streets.

The Union of Students of Ireland blamed activists from various left-wing organisations for “hijacking” their peaceful demonstration.

The Government’s hand on the by-election was forced by a humiliating High Court judgment on the issue.

The constituency has been under-represented for 17 months since FF’s Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher vacated his Dáil seat to become an MEP after the June 2009 European elections.

The president of the High Court, Mr Justice Nicholas Kearns, supported Sinn Féin’s claim that the writ for the by-election to fill the seat should have been moved much sooner.

The failure to move the writ “offends the terms and spirit of the Constitution and its framework for democracy”, he said.

Government chief whip Mr Curran subsequently confirmed the writ would be moved today, but also said the coalition would appeal the High Court ruling to the Supreme Court.