Decision time for Greens in an increasingly precarious coalition

IT’S groundhog day – or almost. This time last year, the coalition partners were in the middle of another row over legislation.

Except then it was the Greens who were livid and Fianna Fáil which was accused of being smug.

Justice Minister Dermot Ahern had proposed new gangland crime measures and had failed to take on board concerns voiced by the Greens.

As a result, two Green senators – Dan Boyle and Deirdre de Burca (who has since left the party) – sensationally voted against the Government in the Senate in a bid to extend the debate on the bill. That bid failed, but they had made their point.

“If I’m blunt, there is an ongoing concern about how legislation is dealt with,” Mr Boyle said at the time. “We feel we had to send a clear signal.”

A year on, and the shoe is on the other foot. It is the Greens who have introduced contentious legislation – a ban on stag-hunting – and Fianna Fáil TDs and senators who are up in arms. In one sense, that is good news for the Greens, for they can point to the fact that they are pushing through their legislative wish-list, despite opposition from some quarters of Fianna Fáil.

It is proof to their supporters that they are “achieving” in Government. And the planning bill and dog-breeding bill, both of which are due to be pushed through before the summer recess, will be further examples. But in another sense, the Greens may now have shortened the remaining length of time they have in Government. When they entered coalition in 2007, the Greens spoke privately about pulling out in 2011. The idea was that they would have enough legislative achievements to their credit by then, and collapsing the coalition would appease voters who didn’t like their alliance with Fianna Fáil.

The economic collapse made a mess of that plan and forced the Greens into backing a range of incredibly difficult measures that they could never have foreseen.

The Greens have stuck by the coalition to this point and the possibility remains that they will do so for the remaining two years of the Government’s term. But as difficult decision followed difficult decision, the Government’s majority has steadily eroded, not helped by unexpected developments, such as Martin Cullen’s resignation. It is now, technically, a minority government – being able to count for sure on just 80 votes when 83 are needed to form a Dáil majority.

To survive, it is relying on four of the five former Fianna Fáil TDs who lost the party whip – Jimmy Devins, Eamon Scanlan, Jim McDaid and, the latest addition, Mattie McGrath – to vote with it.

Those four bring the Government numbers to 84. But as events of this week showed, the foundations are unstable, and the coalition is starting to shake. If the coalition were to collapse because Fianna Fáil backbenchers pulled the plug, it would be disastrous for the Greens.

They’re already floundering in the polls, already seen as Fianna Fáil’s lapdog, and such a development would send out a signal that they had been prepared to support Fianna Fáil at all costs.

The Greens have therefore got to decide whether to pull the plug themselves – and sooner rather than later – or risk betting all on Fianna Fáil somehow maintaining discipline within its own depleting ranks.